Severe Thunderstorm Warning 425, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...BEFORE A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THIS EVENING FROM
WHAT WAS DISCUSSED WITH THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTN WITH CAPE VALUES RUNNING
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. AS EXPECTED...
SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NC MTNS. THE
SHEAR IS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE STORMS ARE ONLY
DRIFTING SLOWLY OFF THE RIDGE-TOPS. THE STORMS SHOULD MAKE IT A
LITTLE OFF THE ESCARPMENT OVER SC AND GA...BUT THEY MAY NOT MAKE IT
QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-85 URBAN CORRIDOR. UP OVER NC...AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE MTNS...STORMS MAY LAST LONGER INTO
THE EVENING AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WRN
PIEDMONT...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA.
ONCE THE STORMS DISSIPATE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...WITH
AREAS OF HAZE AND FOG DEVELOPING. AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NC MTNS. IN FACT...ANY LOCATION THAT SEES HEAVY
RAIN THIS AFTN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING FOG LATE TONIGHT.

THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION ON THU. DEWPOINTS MIX OUT MORE
IN THE AFTN...AND A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN. I
HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT ANYTHING WILL FIRE...BUT I/VE KEPT SPOTTY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NC MTN RIDGETOPS. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A SHARP TROF TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPS AND DRY AIR WILL YIELD A CAPPED ATMOS.

ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WILL
POSSIBLY STALL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LLVL
THICKNESSES AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR FRIDAY/S VALUES. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS AND
L90S EAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE L60S. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...RESULTING IN CAPE VALUES
GREATER THAN 500 J/KG OVER THE MTNS AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG EAST. I
WILL FORECAST 40 TO 50 POPS OVER THE MTNS WITH 20-30 POPS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING THE
POSITION AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW FEATURE. THE 12Z
GFS...00Z ECMWF...AND 12Z GEM ALL DEVELOP THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT DIVERGE GREATLY FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD. THE GFS IS MUCH FURTHER WESTWARD THAN THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS...AND ALSO COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN...AND ALLOWS THE
UPPER LOW TO SIT NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS DEFINITELY THE DRIEST SOLUTION. THE ECMWF
LIFTS THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD STARTING ON MONDAY AND PUSHES AN AREA OF
DEEP RH...UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FA. THE GEM
TAKES THE LOW ALL THE WAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT DOES
KEEP THE FA UNDER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIP.
THE FORECAST PRIMARILY FOLLOWS THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF...THOUGH I AM
HOLDING OFF ON INCREASING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. WILL  ALSO
CONTINUE TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...TSTMS WERE BUILDING OVER THE SW AND CENTRAL NC MTNS AT
ISSUANCE TIME. LATER IN THE DAY THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT AND CB HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
TAF AROUND SUNSET. SOME MVFR HAZE OR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...BUT I HAVEN/T ADDED THAT TO THE TAF.

ELSEWHERE...SCT TSTMS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTN
AND EVENING. THEY WILL APPROACH THE UPSTATE AIRFIELDS IN A COUPLE
HOURS...THOUGH THEY MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST. I/VE ADDED
CBS AT KGMU AND KGSP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LATER TONIGHT AREAS OF
MVFR FOG AND HAZE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. KAVL HAS BEEN A REAL
PAIN AS CONDITIONS LOOKED GOOD FOR FOG THIS MORNING...BUT NOTHING
HAPPENED. I/M GOING TO FOLLOW THE MOS AND THE FAVORABLE CROSSOVER
TEMPS AND PUT IT IN ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON MTN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHRA/TSTMS TO THE REGION SATURDAY.
LOW CLOUDS AND SCT PCPN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SUN AND MONDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-231900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
249 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...A
FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL AREAS OF
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ004>014-019-231900-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
249 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-231900-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
249 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

NCZ510-222000-
EASTERN POLK-
317 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT POLK COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM
EDT...

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MILL SPRING...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF
COLUMBUS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COLUMBUS...

HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3538 8211 3534 8208 3533 8206 3526 8197
      3524 8196 3519 8203 3520 8224 3526 8228
      3529 8229 3539 8220 3540 8214

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

GAZ010-SCZ001-222015-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-RABUN-
324 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RABUN AND WESTERN OCONEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNTAIN CITY...OR NEAR CLAYTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TIGER...SKY
  VALLEY...MOUNTAIN CITY...DILLARD...CLAYTON...MOUNTAIN REST AND LONG
  CREEK.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3500 8345 3500 8334 3491 8311 3470 8328
      3488 8354

07