Severe Thunderstorm Warning 397, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND
AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF A BROAD H5 TROF. SO CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN TO FIRE ACRS ERN TN AND OUR SWRN MTN ZONES WITHIN THE
DPVA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ROLL OFF INTO THE PIEDMONT...AS
DEEP WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHUD HELP THE CONVECTION ORGANIZE
ALONG COLD POOL BNDRYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...LIKELY POPS FOR NE GA
THE UPSTATE...EXTREME SRN NC PIEDMONT WITH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IN
AFFECT TIL 9 PM EDT.

OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS EWD ACRS THE OH VLY TO THE MID ATLC COAST. LLVL
FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE EAST UNDER SOME THINNING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HGT SECTIONS SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR
WITHIN THIS FLOW...SO DESPITE THE UPSLOPE AND THE EXPECTED RAIN
TODAY...CONFIDENCE ON STRATUS DEVELOP IS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP JUST
PCLDY SKIES WITH TEMPS AT MOS CONSENSUS.

SATURDAY...LOWER THETA-E AIR WORKS IN THE LLVLS...HELPING TO LIMIT
CAPE AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES. STILL SHUD SEE SOME INSTBY ALONG THE
SRN THIRD OF CWA CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. IF STRATUS IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND HOLD ON FOR AWHILE CHCS MAY BE EVEN LOWER. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...AS THICKNESSES DO NOT DROP MUCH AT ALL BEHIND THE SFC
FNT (H8 FNT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...UPPER TROF LIFTS NE SAT NIGHT-SUN BUT MOIST
LOW LEVEL E FLOW INCREASES AND MODEL BLEND YIELDS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOW END CHANCE IN THE AREA OF BEST UPSLOPE ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE MTNS. POPS TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHC
OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE W MON WHICH
SHOULD TEND TO SUPRESS CONVECTION. WITH ABOVE AVG TEMPS EXPECTED
AGAIN AND SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS...HELD ON TO
SLIGHT CHC POPS THERE...KEEPING A DRY FCST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH COOLING MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUE-WED...THEN WEAKENING IT THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
TUE...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN WED. HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER MTNS
TUE...THEN ACROSS THE CWA WED WITH LOW END CHC MTNS. THINGS BEGIN TO
SLOWLY CHANGE THU-FRI AS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BEGINS
TO MOVE E...ALLOWING WEAK SHORTWAVES TO APPROACH FROM THE W TO SW.
AT THE SAME TIME THE BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT SFC FEATURE
WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE WARM... MOIST S FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE REGION WITH CHC POPS MTNS
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC IN THE PIEDMONT.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BETTER UPPER FORCING FRI SO EXPECT
SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA BY FRIN AFTN. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVG THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS THE WRN
NC MTNS AND NE GA. THE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTN...AS
THE STORMS ROLL OFF THE MTNS INTO THE PIEDMONT. GUIDANCE COMING
TOGETHER ON SHOWING NUMEROUS STORMS ACRS THE UPSTATE AND SW NC
PIEDMONT. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO PUT IN ANY TEMPO GROUPS AS
CLUSTERS HAVE NOT FORMED YET. HOWEVER...AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE AS
SOON AS TRENDS ARE ESTABLISHED. OTHERWISE...SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
SWLY WINDS (NW AT KAVL) UNTIL OUTFLOW FROM STORMS BLOWS THRU.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE AND PUSH SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS. MID-HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LINGER. AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES THRU WINDS WILL INCR OUT OF THE NE. AN ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...NON OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANY
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FLOW. ALSO...VSBY RESTRICTIONS SHOWN
IN THE MOS ARE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE
FRONT. ANY RESTRICTIONS THAT DEVELOP (MAINLY AT KAVL) SHUD IMPROVE
AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...ONLY ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED SAT
MAINLY OVR THE UPSTATE AND SRN NC MTNS. MAINLY MTN CONVECTION
EXPECTED SUN AFTN. FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AT KAVL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-071745-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
132 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS.
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS THAT REPEATEDLY AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510-071745-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
132 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS.
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS THAT REPEATEDLY AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EDT FRI AUG 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WALHALLA                34.77N 83.06W
08/06/2010                   OCONEE             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR THE COUNTY OFFICE.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
347 PM EDT FRI AUG 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W WALHALLA            34.77N 83.08W
08/06/2010                   OCONEE             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE NEAR MULLER ROAD AND COFFEE ROAD.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EDT FRI AUG 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WALHALLA                34.77N 83.06W
08/06/2010                   OCONEE             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN NEAR THE COUNTY OFFICE.

&&
CORRECTED FOR NUMBER OF TREES DOWN AT LOCATION.

BSH

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