Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MTNS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SVR STORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN AS CAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1000 AND
3000 J/KG. SHEAR HAS INCREASED AS WELL AS A SHARP TROF MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP WITH STORM ORGANIZATION. A DIFFERENCE FROM
MONDAY IS THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR. DCAPES ARE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG MAKING DOWNBURST WINDS EVEN MORE LIKELY. WITH THE FASTER STORM
MOVEMENT...FLOODING MAY BE LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...PW IS STILL QUITE
HIGH AND THE STORMS SHUD BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. SVR STORMS COULD
DEVELOP AT ALMOST ANY LOCATION ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE A SVR
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

THE CONVECTION WILL WANE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE
TROF MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...SO EVEN THO H85 FLOW BECOMES WEST TO NORTHWEST
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REDEVELOP. LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WED. HOWEVER...THE
SFC BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I-85 EVEN WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL TEMPS. WITH THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA. COVERAGE SHUD REMAIN LIMITED WITHOUT A STRONG
FORCING MECHANISM LIKE TUE. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...H5 RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HIGH SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND H6 WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP CONVECTION
INITIATION WILL LIKELY FALL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
I WILL PAINT THE MTNS WITH SCHC TO CHC POPS...WITH SCHC EAST ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CONDITIONS CHANGE VERY LITTLE INTO
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ARE
SLIGHTLY GREATER FROM THURSDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TO
SOLID CHC. INCREASE CU...DEEP CONVECTION...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
THICKNESSES SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A BERMUDA HIGH AND RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE A LONGWAVE TROF
LINGERING BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THE EAST COAST.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF
THE WARM AND HUMID LLVL CONDITIONS AND TROF IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SCHC TO CHC COVERAGE FOR SHRA
AND TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING BUT BEING
REPLACED WITH LOW VFR CIGS. CONVECTION IS ALSO RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTNS. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO INCREASE THEN SPREAD EAST AND
SOUTH INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THRU THE AFTERNOON. HAVE JUST
GONE WITH CB MENTION FOR NOW AS TIMING IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH POSSIBLE LOW END GUSTS...WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. DEEP MOISTURE MOVES OUT AS WELL...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES. WEST TO NW H85 FLOW DEVELOPS...BUT WEAK LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT A WIDE
VARIETY OF VFR/MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS AND VSBY BY DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS SHUD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER
DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...INSTABILITY WILL RETURN WED AFT...BUT MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TUE...SO ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE. MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY...MEANING
PATCHY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THRU SAT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-141915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

NCZ068-132100-
CLEVELAND-
413 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY
THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAWNDALE...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF SHELBY...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  POLKVILLE...LAWNDALE...KINGSTOWN...FALLSTON AND BELWOOD.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3550 8151 3550 8150 3537 8143 3535 8163
      3543 8166 3551 8151

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

NCZ071-SCZ009-132115-
MECKLENBURG-YORK-
427 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN YORK AND SOUTHWESTERN
MECKLENBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF TEGA CAY...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF YORK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  CAROWINDS...TEGA CAY AND FORT MILL.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3492 8087 3499 8117 3508 8118 3513 8092

LANE

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