Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED S/W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
APPROACH THE FA FROM THE NW. A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PLENTY
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...AND WILL PUSH
INTO THE NC MTNS BY LATE AFTN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVE. WITH DCAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DOWNBURSTS.

OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE FA...WITH S/W ENERGY
PASSING OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON LINGERING INSTBY
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH ENUF LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SUSTAIN AT LEAST
ISOLD CONVECTION WELL INTO THE NGT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVC SKIES.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SWD ACRS THE GULF
STATES..SC MIDLANDS...AND COASTAL NC. THUS...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACRS THE LWR PIEDMONT OF NE GA AND UPSTATE. HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL
BE SLOW TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH...SO TAKING A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE...A CHC POP WILL BE CARRIED FOR THE ENTIRE FA...WITH
HIGH-END CHC ALONG SRN FRINGE. TEMPS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN A
CATEGORY OR TWO...AS THICKNESSES FALL AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER
REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...AFTER A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS SAT EVE...FRONT
MOVES SE OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS COOL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT WITH 50S IN THE MTNS. DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
N SUN. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEG ABOVE AVG SUN AFTN. HIGH PRES
SHIFTS E TOWARD THE COAST SUN NIGHT. EXPECT MRNG LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVG. AS SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MON...S-SE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL PUSH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND INCRSD
MOISTURE N THRU THE CWA. NOT MUCH SHOWING UP IN MODELS FOR UPPER
FORCING MON BUT THERE COULD BE SOME VERY WEAK IMPULSES MOVG THRU THE
UPPER FLOW. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE LOW CHC POPS OVER THE
MTNS...SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE BEGINNING MON AFTN. HIGHS SHOULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEG ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM THURSDAY...FOR THE MOST PART IN THE MEDIUM RANGE THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED AS A PLAYER IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THIS
FORECAST.  MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE GEM
CLOSES OFF A 500MB LOW AND SLOWS IT DOWN A BIT.  HOWEVER...THE
PREFERRED ECMWF TAKES THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH EAST OF OUR AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  AFTER THAT...THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AT THE END OF THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY...WED AND THURS AND
THEN AT LEAST TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE FOR NEXT FRIDAY...AS IT LOOKS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR HAZE CONTINUES THIS AFTN...AS CONVECTION FIRES ACRS
THE NC MTNS. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REACH THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW FROM
THE NW IS POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD HELP CLEAR OUT THE HAZE...AND
SWITCH WND DIR TO NWLY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NC BY EARLY
SAT...WITH SCT-NUM SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME...WILL ADD CB
MENTION DUE TO EXPECTED TSRA MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT. WND WILL KEEP
A NWLY DIR THRU SAT.

AT KAVL...A FEW SHRA ALREADY DEVELOPING ACRS THE CENTRAL MTNS.
GREATER COVERAGE AND MORE INTENSE TS ACRS ERN TN...WILL MOVE INTO
THE MTNS LTR THIS AFTN AND INTO THIS EVE. LINGERING ACTIVITY WELL
INTO THE NGT. WHETHER OR NOT FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPS IS STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARD IFR BY DAYBREAK SAT. NLY
WND EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...VFR WITH LGT/VRB WND. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE
SEWD OFF THE MTNS LT THIS AFTN AND LINGER THRU THE EVE HOURS. HAVE
ADDED MENTION OF CB...BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO ADD TS
ATTM. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVRNGT THRU SAT
MORNING...SHUD BE MAINLY VFR. IF ANY HVY RA FALLS AT ANY OF THE
SITES...LWR RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. SHRA/TSRA/ POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...PATCHY MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS AND NEAR AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SUN
MORNING. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW LOCATIONS
FRIDAY...

FOR FRI...JULY 9TH

GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG 100  1993
CHARLOTTE              101  1986
ASHEVILLE              93   1986

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101845-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
241 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY LINGERING OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS BUT SOME HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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