Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...AND WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FCST ON TRACK THIS MRNG WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GRIDDED
FIELDS. REDUCED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE GA-SC PIEDMONT AND
TWEAKED TEMPS UP A DEG OR SO. USED LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS FOR
OTHER MINOR CHANGES. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE GENERATING NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER VORTEX WILL MOVE OVER ERN CANADA
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. AT THE SFC...ONE BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY
MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND AN ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING. SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
FORCING IS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FALLING HEIGHTS...BUT
SHORTWAVES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD COME TOGETHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN LOW LEVEL
COVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SLOWING MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. CONSIDERABLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SUGGESTED IN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS...BUT
THICKNESSES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO YIELD
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 90S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT IN AND NEAR THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN HALF. SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING WORKING IN ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM TUE...THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
ALONG THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WARRANTING HIGH POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA...AND CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH. MOIST INFLOW FROM WITHER THE
GULF OR ATLANTIC IS MEAGER...SO EVEN WITH THE SLOW FRONTAL
MOVEMENT....EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SEEMS IMPROBABLE. THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT FEATURE DRYING FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES
FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM TUE...THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA...AND AN UPPER RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND. ON MAJOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS AS THE FORMER DEVELOPING A STRONG AND NEARLY STATIONARY
CUTOFF LOW SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER OUR AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH ACROSS FL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUR AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. ON MONDAY GULF INFLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER RIDGE...FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SCT TSTMS THIS AFTN-EVE. SOME STORMS
COULD BE QUITE STRONG. EXPECT INTIAL NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT...THEN
W TO SW UNTIL TAPERING OFF AT SUNSET. OCNL CROSSWINDS PSBL THIS AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SCT TSTMS THIS AFTN-EVE. SOME
STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG. NW WIND KAVL-KHKY...SW ACROSS SC
PIEDMONT. OCNL CROSSWINDS PSBL THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT COLD FRONT VCNTY S CWA WED...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PSBL. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
N THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/RB
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
534 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-301000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
534 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW
COULD PRODUCE HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1213 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 SW ANDERSON          34.40N 82.79W
06/28/2010                   ANDERSON           SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ON POWERLINES NEAR JUNCTION OF HWY 187 AND HWY
            29.

&&

TBENTHAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1237 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001-291715-
HABERSHAM-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-RABUN-STEPHENS-
1237 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HABERSHAM...NORTHERN
STEPHENS...SOUTHERN RABUN AND WESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM
EDT...

AT 1234 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF CLARKESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE RABUN...
  TURNERVILLE...
  TALLULAH FALLS...
  TOCCOA...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3479 8342 3476 8315 3452 8317 3458 8362
      3476 8361

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
101 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

SCZ003-006-291745-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
101 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREENVILLE COUNTY
THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 1259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF MARIETTA...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  ROBINSON...TIGERVILLE...TAYLORS AND MARIETTA.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3506 8221 3487 8226 3503 8255 3511 8249

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

GAZ018-026-SCZ004-291830-
FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-STEPHENS-
139 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN STEPHENS...NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 136 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE HARTWELL...OR 10 MILES EAST OF
TOCCOA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE HARTWELL...
  WHITWORTH...
  FAIR PLAY...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3451 8321 3460 8320 3459 8288 3448 8298
      3447 8301 3449 8305 3447 8306 3445 8308

LANE