Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
431 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY
AND SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR PERHAPS WEDNESDAY. COOLER
AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TSTM INITIATION ACRS THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL INCREASE IN CVRG AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON...AND AIDED BY OUTFLOWS AND LEE TROUGH...WILL
EXPAND INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THERE REMAINS THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED SVR TSTMS...WITH DAMAGING MICROBURSTS THE GREATEST THREAT.
THE OVERALL CVRG AND MAGNITUDE WILL DIMINISH FROM MID-EVENING ONWARD
WITH JUST A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POP OR LESS OVERNIGHT WITHIN ANY
LINGERING WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. OVERALL...MONDAY MORNING MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE THANKS TO
HIGHER DWPTS AND LAYER RH.

THE TREND TOWARD LOWERING OF HEIGHTS COMMENCES ON MONDAY WITH THE
RESULTANT UPWARD TICK IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
STRONGER LAYERED UVV/S ARE FCST TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR W/NW...CLOSER
TO L/WV AXIS...TSTM CVRG WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS WHERE FRONTAL BAND FORCING
AND DEEP MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ENCROACH. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FLOW
WILL PUSH FTHL/PIEDMONT MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD BE WELL
UNDERWAY BY LATE MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF NORTH AMERICA. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT SOME TIME IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. RECENT MODEL
RUNS ARE A BIT AT ODDS AS TO WHEN THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH. THE SITUATION FAVORS THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
ON TUESDAY WHEN THE NAM SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVING THROUGH. THE
GFS LINGERS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND DOES NOT DROP DOWN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONCERN WITH THE
GFS IS THAT IT MIGHT BE ERRONEOUSLY BLOWING UP A SURFACE LOW ON THE
NRN GULF COAST BECAUSE OF GRID SCALE FEEDBACK. THAT FEATURE WOULD
CAUSE THE FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS TO SLOW DOWN LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO STRIKE A BALANCE BETWEEN
THE TWO...WHICH KEEPS SOME THREAT OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA S AND E OF
THE MTNS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY...WHEN GUIDANCE WAS QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN. FOR NOW HAVE DECLINED TO MAKE THAT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE HIGH
TEMP ON THAT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...A FAIR AND TRANQUIL AND RELATIVELY TEMPERATE
PERIOD IS STILL INDICATED FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE IN SPITE OF SOME OF
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFS APPEARS TO SUFFER FROM SOME
FEEDBACK IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST
WHICH SLIDES PAST ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WAS
DISREGARDED. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST ECMWF LEAVES BEHIND AN UPPER LOW
OFF CAPE HATTERAS NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WRAPS SOME PRECIP BACK
WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...THIS WILL ALSO BE
DISREGARDED...WHICH LEAVES US WITH THE HPC SCENARIO OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPS WERE ACTUALLY KEPT A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES ON A
COOLER TREND. AFTER THE LAST STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER...A PERIOD OF
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S IS PROBABLY TOO MUCH TO HOPE FOR.
NEVERTHELESS...TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...BASED ON RUC HRRR RESPONSE AND CCFP OUTPUT...WILL INTRODUCE
A LATE DAY CB MENTION FOLLOWED BY MID-EVENING DEEP CONVECTIVE
DISSIPATION. MET/MAV/LAV ALL IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING VSBY
UNRESTRICTED OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM ACRS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL FA THIS AFTERNOON...SO CB WILL BE INTRODUCED AT ALL
TERMINALS AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED TO INCREASE TSTM CHANCES. MODEL
CONSENSUS AND PERSISTENCE WOULD STILL SUPPORT LIMITING A PERIOD OF
EARLY MORNING BR TO JUST KAVL.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY. MORNING
MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES HEAVY RAIN...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS. A DECREASING TREND IN PRECIPITATION
FOLLOWS...BUT MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO SUNRISE FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
442 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-282045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
442 PM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY. INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS...AND ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS THAT RESPOND RAPIDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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