Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
214 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MTN DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY DRIFTING INTO THE PIEDMONT
BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HTG LATER THIS EVENING. 12 UTC
OBSERVED AREA SNDGS DEPICTED A HIGH FREEZING LVL AND WITH A RATHER
MOIST PROFILE UP THRU THE MID-LVLS...A HIGH WET BULB ZERO AS WELL.
GIVEN THIS...WOULD EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
RISK TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE. OTHERWISE...FAIR AND WARM
TONIGHT WITH WED MORNING MINS NEAR PERSISTENCE. 594 DM 50H
ANTICYCLONE CENTER BUILDS ATOP THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS FTHL AND
PIEDMONT MAX TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD LVLS IN THE MID AND UPPER
90S. WITH THE OVERALL SUPPRESSED LOOK TO THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECTING
JUST ISOLATED DIURNALLY FIRED TSTMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...NO SURPRISES IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE WILL PERIST
ACROSS THE SE STATES THROUGH THU. HOWEVER BY FRI...HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL SOME AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AND SETTLE
INTO THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY FRI. ON THU...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
WITH PIEDMONT AREAS STAYING GENERALLY DRY. WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA THU NIGHT COULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...DID NOT BUY INTO
THE FAIRLY WET 12Z NAM SOLUTION. ON FRI...THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE A
GOOD BET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THU WILL BE QUITE HOT WITH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS ON THU TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. FRI'S MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT A CATEGORY LOWER DUE TO MORE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AND SOMEWHAT LOWER THICKNESS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUE...GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH RELIED ON
THE ECMENS MEAN WHICH HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH SYNOPTIC
TRENDS. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE WESTERN ATALNTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO BUILD WEST OVER THE SE STATES THIS WEEKEND AND PUSH THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. HENCE...A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON/EVENGING CONVECTION
WILL BE FEATURED THROUGH MON. ON TUE...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NE STATES AND LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE SE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUE GIVING THE
FORECAST AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...AND SOMEWHAT LOWER MAX TEMPS PROBABLY FELT MOST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT VFR LVL CU AND LIGHT SSW WIND TO BE SEEN INTO THIS
EVENING WITH TSTM CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THE TAF. MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEP
FLIGHT CONDITIONS UNRESTRICTED.

ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...SMALL CHANCES FOR LATE DAY TSTM WILL WARRANT
CONTINUATION OF CB AT KAVL. VFR ELSEWHERE. WILL LEAN TOWARD
PERSISTENCE FOR LATE NIGHT BR...JUST 5-6SM BR AT KAVL THRU SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK... GENERALLY VFR WEATHER EXCEPT CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND HAZE...ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN FALLS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...CSH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>