Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DESPITE A LONE WEAKENING CELL OVER NE GA...THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LITTLE OUTFLOW IS
EVIDENT ON THIS CELL AND INSTABILITY IS DIMINISHING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM MOVING INTO ERN TN.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...BUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE BEST DPVA WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL COME AFTER THE EXPIRATION OF THE CURRENT WATCH.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES GOING FOR JUST A COUPLE HOURS
MORE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

EXPECTING ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AS DEEP LAYER
DRYING OVERSPREADS THE CWFA BEHIND THE WAVE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDS EAST ATOP THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS MAX TEMPS
GAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE TODAY/S READINGS. WITH RATHER LOW SFC
DWPTS AND DRY AIR THRU MOST OF THE DEPTH OF FCST SNDGS...DIURNAL
DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SATURDAY...DEEP RIDGING WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE
THAT THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY DRY FROM THE BL THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS WITH VERY WEAK WIND PROFILES. GIVEN THE RIDGING AND LACK
OF INSTABILITY...COVERAGE OF ISO DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...REMAINING A FEW
DECREES FROM RECORDS.

ON TUESDAY...CONDITIONS CHANGE LITTLE FROM MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA.
HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING A 2-3 DEGREE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S...CAPE VALUES SHOULD INCREASE ABOVE
1000 J/KG. GIVEN A LACK OF FOCUS AND WEAK LLVL WINDS...SCHC POPS
SHOULD VERIFY WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT FALLING SHORT OF RECORDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST BEGINS AT 00Z ON WED
WITH PERSISTENT H5 RIDGING OVER THE SE CONUS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SFC. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE OBSERVED IN THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON...THUS THE SENSIBLE FCST WAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE. THE LATEST 12Z GFS RUN DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF AND GEM WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER RIDGING PATTERN
ON DAYS 6 AND 7. THEY ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FLATTER RIDGE AND A
MORE PRONOUNCED H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS SOLUTION DOES SUGGEST THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD MOVE
OVER THE FCST AREA AND LOWER TEMPS A BIT AND POSSIBLY GENERATE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION WITH ITS APPROACH. WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE
MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE I MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST. FOR
NOW...KEPT ABOVE AVG TEMPS AND DIURNAL SH AND TS IN THE FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCT VFR CU WILL LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING. PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A CB MENTION. USING A BLEND
OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE RESULTS ONLY IN A SMALL CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF
VFR/MVFR AROUND SUNRISE.

ELSEWHERE...WILL CARRY CB MENTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
UPSTATE/KAVL/KHKY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION ARE
DWINDLING. OTHERWISE...VFR CU ACRS THE FA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO AREAS OF MAINLY MVFR BR.

OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANT VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN MRNG FOG/STRATUS AND
ISOLD-SCT AFTN-EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

NCZ053-064-065-192000-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
319 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 400
PM EDT...

AT 315 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BENT CREEK...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO I-26 AT
  I-40...SKYLAND...CANDLER...BILTMORE FOREST...BENT CREEK...AVERY
  CREEK...MOUNTAIN HOME...MILLS RIVER...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER AND
  ETOWAH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3533 8242 3525 8271 3542 8275 3542 8274
      3543 8275 3552 8278 3554 8277 3559 8257

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

NCZ063-064-SCZ002-192015-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
328 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PICKENS...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

AT 326 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE TOXAWAY...OR 15 MILES
WEST OF BREVARD...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WOLF
  MOUNTAIN...CASHIERS...SAPPHIRE...LAKE TOXAWAY AND BALSAM GROVE.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3526 8309 3526 8287 3500 8282 3500 8292
      3500 8291 3503 8291 3504 8290 3505 8291
      3500 8310 3501 8312

07

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