Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT IN FROM KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...CROSSING OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATING
LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AS A BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS THE CONVECTION THAT WILL SPILL OVER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH POCKETS OF LAPS CAPES IN THE 3000+J RANGE
THERE IS PLENTY OF ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUS ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING
THROUGH THE NC FOOTHILLS WILL AFFECT THE NC PIEDMONT IN THE LATE DAY
TIMEFRAME. CONSTRUCTED THE POP GRIDS AS A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND
BACKGROUND CHANCE POPS TO TRY AND CAPTURE HIGHEST THREAT AREAS WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND REALLY NO UPPER SUPPORT
AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE
BY 04Z. HOWEVER...MOS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE
RETAINED SOME CHANCE POPS THERE. IT WILL BE A WARM/MUGGY NIGHT WITH
CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS KEEPING LOWS ABOVE 70 OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND 60S MOUNTAINS.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF MOVING THE SE U.S. UPPER RIDGE EAST
OF THE AREA ON WED. WITH HEIGHTS LOWERING...WEAK PVA AND A JUICED
ATMOSPHERE ON WED...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON WITH INDICATIONS THAT THE BEST COVERAGE
WILL BE NORTH OF I-85...BUT THERE SHOULD PLENTY OF STORMS S OF THERE
AS WELL. CONVECTIVE INITIATION A LITTLE EARLIER IN DAY SHOULD
PRECLUDE MAX TEMPS REACHING TODAY'S LEVELS...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE. APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY
NUMBERS ON WED AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...JUICIER DWPTS WILL BECOME DISPLACED TO THE
SE ON THURSDAY AS AIRMASS WITH A MORE CONTINENTAL FLAVOR IMPINGES
UPON THE REGION...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF SFC BNDRY...PROGGED
TO REACH THE LOWER PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY EVENING. DIURNALLY ENHANCED
DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
STILL POSSIBLE AS LOWER ELEVATION MAXES WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S.
UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW POKES BACK UP INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AS WEAK LLVL RIDGING AND NE FLOW CONTINUES TO USHER
LOWER SFC DWPTS INTO THE CWFA. ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS...WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S ACRS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE
TREND TOWARD UPPER RIDGING AND THE DOWNWARD NUDGE IN SFC
DWPTS...DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY PROGGED TO BE JUST ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL ARE CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...OVERALL THEY ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING A
PATTERN THAT WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN OUR FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.  ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE IN THE
FORECAST.  THE GFS HAS CONVECTION OVER FL...GA AND PARTS OF SC EACH
DAY...HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS THE CONVECTION FROM FL WEST AND THEN
UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALMOST EVERY DAY.  BOTTOM LINE...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...FIRST CONCERN IS CONVECTION FOR THE AIRFIELD. CURRENT
RADAR SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG STORMS TO THE NW...MOVING SLOWLY
SE. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND BRINGS CONVECTIVE CELLS TO AROUND THE AIRFIELD BY 21Z. A TEMPO
FOR TSRA SEEMS JUSTIFIED FROM 21Z-23Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY NW WINDS. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE E OF THE
AIRFIELD BY 00Z LEAVING PROBABLY JUST HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. AFTER SOME GUSTY NW WINDS WITH THE STORMS...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE...BUT FAVOR THE SE DIRECTION.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING KAVL WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL MOVE
PAST THE AIRFIELD BY AROUND 19Z...BUT CB CLOUD GROUP JUSTIFIED TIL
23Z OR SO AS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
UPSTREAM OF KHKY WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD IN THE 1830Z-20Z TIMEFRAME
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS AND STRONG NW WINDS POSSIBLE.
CONVECTION WILL TRY TO DRIFT OUT ONTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON SO CB CLOUD GROUP JUSTIFIED...EXCEPT AT KAND WHERE THEY ARE
FARTHEST REMOVED. SOME MVFR FOG ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE AT KAVL/KHKY
EARLY ON WED.

OUTLOOK...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WED WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WED NIGHT. DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON THU
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW WITH MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY RETURNING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ029.
NC...NONE.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ011>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>010-161015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-
601 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE MOST LIKELY IN URBAN AREAS...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE
STORMS MAY BECOME ANCHORED ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A HUMID
AIR MASS TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 104 RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ029-SCZ011>014-019-161015-
ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
601 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE MOST LIKELY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             STATESVILLE             35.79N 80.89W
06/15/2010  E0.50 INCH       IREDELL            NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MARBLE TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
402 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W CHESNEE             35.15N 81.92W
06/15/2010                   SPARTANBURG        SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            FOUR OR FIVE TREES DOWN AT HIGHWAY 11 AND IVEY ROAD. ONE
            TREE ON A MOBILE HOME, ONE TREE ON A HOUSE.

&&

RAS

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