River Flood Warning 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
856 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY...BEFORE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
REMOVED TWO WESTERN COUNTIES FROM TORNADO WATCH 11. TWEAKED TEMP/DP/RH
AND WINDS. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. WILL LIKELY UPDATE AGAIN IN
A COUPLE HOURS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER COOL STABLE CAD AT 1930Z. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT
THE WEDGE IS BEGINNING TO ERODE ACROSS THE LAKELANDS...WHERE
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM46 AT LAURENS TO 64 AT NEWBERRY. LOCAL WRF
AND NAM WIND AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CAD RETREATING NE THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING
THE I-85 AND I-77 CORRIDORS BY 0Z. EAST OF THE WEDGE FRONT...SFC
BASED CAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM 100-300 J/KG. VEERING LLVL WINDS
COUPLED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE H85 JET WILL YIELD HELICITY VALUES
OF 300-400 M2/S2. STABILITY AND HELICITY VALUES WILL REMAIN UNTIL
CONVECTION SWEEPS EAST OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY KEEPING A HEIGHTEN
THREAT OF SVR WEATHER UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT
THE PEAK PERIOD AND AREA OF SVR THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES MAY EXIST ACROSS BROAD RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 0Z-4Z.

WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF RAIN WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
TO TRACK SSW TO NNE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES WITH PROLONG
TRAINING. OTHERWISE...LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW...PW GREATER THAN 1.3
INCHES...AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT...POSSIBLY 4 INCHES ACROSS THE
SW RIDGES. THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIMING AND PLACEMENT LOOKS
GOOD.

THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A SFC LOW AND PLACEMENT OF THE
CAD BOUNDARY WILL STRENGTHEN THE WINDS AND GUSTS POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT 1930Z...GUSTS ACROSS THE
MIDLAND RANGED FROM THE L20S TO 30 KTS. I WILL KEEP A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE PIEDMONT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...LARGE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY...YIELDING CAA ACROSS THE CWA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIXING HEIGHTS MAY REACH 3-5 KFT MON
AFTERNOON. MODERATE MIXING...CAA...AND 6-8 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA MON
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 25
MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE. I WILL
HIGHLIGHT WITH A WIND ADVISORY. WEST WINDS ACROSS THE MTNS WILL LIFT
COOL MOIST AIR ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES. I WILL PAINT THE TN
BORDER WITH A CHC OF SHRA...POSSIBLY SOME SN OVER THE RIDGES BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A BELT OF STRONG MID LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN...WHILE GUSTS WILL PICK UP WITH MIXING AGAIN E OF THE MTNS
LATE TUE MORNING. MOISTURE IN THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MTNS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY COLD PROFILES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WRN NC MTNS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRY UP QUICKLY TUE NIGHT...BUT A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL QPF AND EXPECTED 13 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS SUGGEST SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ALONG THE TN BORDER. WINTER
WEATHER AND/OR WIND ADVISORY PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED BY MONDAY FOR
THE EARLY SHORT RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NC MTNS.

HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ALOFT ALONG WITH SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. DRY
PROFILES PRODUCING FULL SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WED AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A SRN STREAM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS STATES WILL
SLOWLY OPEN UP AND DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EAST WED NIGHT THROUGH THU.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH A DIGGING NRN STREAM WAVE TO
CARVE OUT A TRUOGH TO THE WEST THU THROUGH FRI. BETTER MOISTURE WILL
INITIALLY LAY OVER ACROSS THE NRN TIER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH TIMING AND THERMAL DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN
THE MODELS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. NRN TIER GFS PROFILES ARE QUITE A
BIT COLDER THAN THE ECM AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST TIMING AND PROFILES WILL BE A BLEND OF
THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECM...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN FORECAST THU THROUGH FRI. THIS SHOULD RELEGATE ANY PTYPE
PROBLEMS TO THE FAR NRN TIER NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ON THE WARM
ADVECTION SIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO FRI.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF UPPER JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN A
COMMA HEAD TRAILING THE LOW SHOULD THEN TRANSIT THE AREA
SATURDAY...WITH FALLING THICKNESSES POSSIBLY CAUSING A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THROUGH
THE WEEK FOR POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRIER NW FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING E COAST TROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT OCNL MVFR CIG KCLT...OTHERWISE IFR
CIGS WITH OCNL LIFR AND GUSTY VRBL WINDS IN SHWRS AND SCT TSTMS THRU
THIS EVE. CIG/VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER FROPA AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SWING SW-W FOR THE OVERNIGHT...NW AT KAVL. EXPECT MVFR
AROUND DAYBREAK...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 14-15Z WHEN WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE SW TO W WITH G25KT...NW KAVL.

OUTLOOK...VFR AND GUSTY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MTNS MON AFTN. NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE MTNS...WITH PSBL MVFR CIGS AT
KAVL...MON NIGHT-TUE NGHT. FAIR WX WED AND THU...ANOTHER FRONT FRI.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR GAZ026-028-
     029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ036-037-
     056-057-069>072-082.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-
     068>072-082.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ001>014-019.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR SCZ006>014-
     019.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ008-009-013-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED/RB
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...RB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
942 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

NCZ036-056-069>071-SCZ009-250330-
CATAWBA-GASTON-IREDELL-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-YORK-
942 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL YORK...EASTERN GASTON...
EASTERN LINCOLN...IREDELL...NORTHERN MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHEASTERN
CATAWBA COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM EST...

AT 940 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BOGER CITY TO
GASTONIA TO YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO I-77 AT
  I-85...MOUNTAIN ISLAND LAKE...LAKE NORMAN...YORK...LAKE WYLIE...
  CLOVER...TURNERSBURG...TROUTMAN...STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...
  HARMONY...TERRELL...LOWESVILLE...IRON STATION...DENVER...BOGER
  CITY...PAW CREEK...HUNTERSVILLE...DAVIDSON...CROFT...CORNELIUS...
  STANLEY...RANLO...MOUNT HOLLY...MCADENVILLE...LUCIA...LOWELL...HIGH
  SHOALS...GASTONIA...DALLAS...CROWDERS...CRAMERTON AND BELMONT.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
949 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LITTLE RIVER            35.24N 82.63W
01/24/2010                   TRANSYLVANIA       NC   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE LITTLE RIVER NEAR PENROSE.

&&

HG