Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A BRISK AND COOL WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT STRONG STORM...WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED AS COUNTIES WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA ARE REPORTING LIMITED IMPACT. THE PRES GRADIENT DOES
NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND SOME DEGREE OF
A LOW LEVEL JET IN THE COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WILL
REPLACE THE CURRENT WIND PRODUCTS WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE
NRN NC MTNS TONIGHT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND SRN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...AND THEN A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OUT
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THROUGH 6 PM. ALL OTHER PRODUCTS
WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THE DEEP BUT SLOWLY FILLING 500 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE NJ/NY/CT
AREA THIS EVENING WILL SEND A FAIRLY SHARP VORTICITY MAXIMA INTO THE
NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 00Z. FORTUNATELY...VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IS APPARENT IN THE PROFILES. THE RETURN OF NW FLOW MOISTURE
REMAINS RATHER LIMITED UNTIL AFTER 09Z...AND THEN STEADILY IMPROVES
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. NRN TIER FORCING MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SAT AFTN AS A SECONDARY SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROTATES
AROUND THE DEEP UPPER VORTEX. ALL MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE SOURCES
HAVE VERY PALTRY POPS AND QPF THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE IN THE CURRENT AIRMASS...WILL STILL RAMP
POPS UP INTO THE SOLID CHC RANGE ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND TAPER DOWN
THE SPINE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO
POST ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE NEAR TERM GIVEN THE SPARSE MODEL QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. ONE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROTATING TO THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT. ALL NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO ACCOMPANY
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE MODEL QPF IS RELEGATED TO THE USUAL
UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE HIGHEST QPF/SNOWFALL CLOSE
TO THE TN STATE LINE. USED THE HIGHER NAM QPF FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN
WHICH TRANSLATES INTO GENERALLY 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR THE TN STATE
LINE. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ADVISORY TYPE
OF EVENT FOR THE USUAL NW FLOW MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WILL DEFER ANY
HEADLINES TO LATER SHIFTS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT...THEN CLEARING EARLY
SUN. AFTER NW FLOW SNOWFALL MAXIMIZES SAT NIGHT...EXPECT
COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AS
MOISTURE WANES AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE DUE TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED FLURRIES MAY HANG IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO
SUN EVENING AS NW FLOW CONTINUES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BUT TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. MONDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY NICE DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SE STATES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MAX TEMPS MON
SHOULD WARM TO WITHIN A CATEGORY OF NORMAL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS. TRENDED POPS SAT NIGHT/SUN
TOWARD THE MUCH HIGHER AND MORE REALISTIC SREF FOR THE MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...THE HPC SOLUTION FOR OUR AREA AGAIN CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS COMING MORE IN LINE
EARLY ON...IT BECOMES A FAST OUTLIER. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE GULF STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH A LOW CLOSING OFF
OVER GA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST ON TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE CROSSES THE GULF MONDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRY...SO LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED. MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE A WARM NOSE ALOFT AT 12Z TUESDAY...BUT DO NOT HAVE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THE FORECAST. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START AS SLEET TUESDAY MORNING...BUT FOR NOW RAIN
OR SNOW OR A MIX OF THE TWO WILL BE CARRIED BASED ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS QUICKLY ELIMINATE THE WARM
NOSE WITH THE MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS. AS THE SURFACE LOW
CROSSES NORTH FL TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW TO ITS NORTH BACKS FROM
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY REDUCING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE
BLUE RIDGE. BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHERLY...FAVORING SNOW ALONG THE TN BORDER OVER THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE SURFACE WAVE COMMA HEAD MOVES EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...THE LEE WILL DRY OUT...LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FEATURE DRY WEATHER
AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL EXHIBIT A LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. GRADUAL WARMING IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
NC...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
EASTERLY FLOW CAN BE DIRECTED INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER
FACTOR WILL BE WHERE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE COMMA HEAD MOVES
OVER...AND HOW LONG IT RESIDES THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCLT...NW WINDS IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW ARE BATTLING WITH A
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF WEST THIS AFTN. WINDS
COULD BE DUE WEST AT TIMES...BUT A 280 DIRECTION STILL LOOKS BEST ON
AVERAGE. MIXING HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO TAP INTO THE BETTER WINDS ALOFT
AND G25 KT WILL BE THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE G30 KT AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THESE COULD THICKEN/LOWER A
LITTLE AFTER 12Z SAT...WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH TOWARD 18Z.

ELSEWHERE...THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO VARY WINDS BETWEEN SW AT 10
KT OR LESS...TO WNW GUSTS AT 20 KT AT TIMES. KAVL IS ONLY
EXCEPTION...WITH SOLID NW FLOW FROM 330 OR 340 EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. KAVL GUSTS TO 30 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
DAY...WITH SPEEDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH 18Z ON SATURDAY. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOWER VFR CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASING
FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT SAT THROUGH
MON...EXCEPT A POSSIBLE BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CIGS WITH NW FLOW
MOISTURE AT KAVL SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS NE GA FOR DRY
RH VALUES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS ALSO BEING ISSUED FOR SATURDAY...AS
RH VALUES SHOULD DIP TO OR BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM
AT LEAST HABERSHAM TO ELBERT COUNTIES. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RABUN COUNTY FOR NOW...AS THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
MUCH DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT IS STILL HIGH.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053-064-065-501>507.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ051-058-
     062-082.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-048-
     052-056-057-059-063-068>072-508>510.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG
FIRE WEATHER...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-271600-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
1054 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RED FLAG WARNING.
   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ051-058-062-082-SCZ001>014-019-271600-
SWAIN-GRAHAM-MACON-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1054 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-048-052-056-057-059-063-068>072-508>510-271600-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-HAYWOOD-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
1054 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-501>507-271600-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
1054 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.