Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES DEEPENING IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY WILL BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED IN THE NEW YORK CITY AREA ON FRIDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE A TREMENDOUS INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHWESTWARD
DOWN THE APPLACHIANS AND ADJACENT AREAS...WITH RESULTINGLY STRONG NW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

FIRST...THOUGH...WE HAVE A MYRIAD OF LINGERING HAZARDS TO TIE UP.
NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DRY UP THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FEEL SAFE REMOVING MACON FROM THE ADVISORY AS ONLY
FLURRIES WERE REPORTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE WINTER STORM
WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED ELSEWHERE WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE AREAS. A LULL IN THE PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP
AFTER 12Z ON FRIDAY.

AS NW FLOW MOISTURE RAMPS DOWN...850 MB WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP...WITH
50 TO 60 KT INDICATED ACROSS THE NRN TIER BY 12Z FRIDAY. MIXING MAY
BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN KEEPING DAMAGING GUSTS FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS FRIDAY. GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE MIXING DEPTH...WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA AS IS...AND
ADD A SMALL TIER OF WIND ADVISORY AROUND IT. CERTAINLY LAKE WIND OR
WIND ADVISORY PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED IN OTHER LOCATIONS AT SOME
POINT...AND THIS WILL BE FINE TUNED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...INTENSE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THAT MEANS NW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. SHORT TERM WILL COMMENCE WITH A LULL IN THE NW FLOW
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS EARLY FRI
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONCURS THAT
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS SE ALONG WITH SOME DPVA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERECNES BETWEEN THE 12Z NAM/GFS IN REGARD TO DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVAL...WITH THE 09Z SREF APPEARING TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE.
THEREFORE...WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS SW ALONG THE NC/TN
BORDER BEGINNING LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. MOISTURE DEEPENS
CONSIDERABLY SAT EVENING INTO THE NIGHT ALONG WITH FALLING H850
TEMPS. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MAXIMIZE
DURING THE PERIOD FROM SAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AND
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE RAMPED POPS
UPWARD INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALONG THE
NC/TN BORDER. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BREAK CONTAINMENT SO HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT POPS E OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. RIGHT NOW QPF DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS NEAR THE TN BORDER GENERALLY
ACCUMULATING FROM LATE SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...SAT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY BUT TEMPS
WILL STILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW AVERAGE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SAT
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AGAIN ON SUN. IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS SAT NIGHT
AS TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH IT SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT FLURRIES.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR TEMPS THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN GMOS/HPC
FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT. WIND/CLOUDS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE HPC PREFERRED ECMWF STARTS OUT MONDAY
MORNING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF STATES...BETWEEN A
DEPARTING LOW OFF CAPE COD...AND ANOTHER LOW ENTERING WEST TX. BY
TUESDAY THE RIDGE IS OVER THE CAROLINAS...WHILE THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF STATES. THIS LOW MOVES UP THE
CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND IS FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER ALONG
THE TN BORDER...MONDAY FEATURES DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A GULF SURFACE WAVE SPREAD OVER OUR AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE TO WARM NOSE ALOFT...AND SUPPORT
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS INITIALLY...SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON TUESDAY...WHEN THE SURFACE WAVE CROSSES NORTH FL AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO ITS NORTH BRINGS ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
CONTACT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DILEMMA FOR SNOW PRODUCTION WILL BE
THAT IF THE SYSTEM IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR COLD AIR TO BE OVER OUR
AREA...THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AS WELL. FOR NOW HPC
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WHICH
WOULD STILL FAVOR A CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE WETTEST PART PART OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY. AS THE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND BECOME PARALLEL TO THE
BLUE RIDGE...LIMITING PRECIPITATION JUST AS TEMPERATURES COOL. ON
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY...DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHUTS OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY FEATURES DRY
HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AND COLD AIR
REMAINING...THE TUESDAY SYSTEM WILL NOT BE OUTLOOKED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAINS BELOW NORMAL...WITH A DOWNWARD SPIKE IN
MAXIMUMS TUESDAY IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS HAS FANNED OUT IN THE COLD
ADVECTION TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 6 KFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST ABOVE 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFTN WITH MIXING...BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO SUSTAINED WNW WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP IN EARNEST AGAIN WITH
MIXING FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

AT KAVL...STRATOCUMULUS CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN. GUSTS TO 30 KT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS INCREASING
TO 35 KT OR BETTER EARLY FRIDAY.

ELSEHWERE...SCATTERED STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTN. W TO
NW WINDS MAY GUST FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT LEE TROUGH IS KEEPING
SPEEDS DOWN FROM KGMU TO KGSP. BETTER GUST POTENTIAL WILL ARRIVE
WITH MIXING FRIDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT DEVELOPING
ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF AREA. A LEE TROUGH COULD AGAIN KEEP WINDS A
LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY AND LIGHTER FROM KGMU TO KGSP.

OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE
AT KAVL IN RETURNING MOISTURE IN NW FLOW. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO SAT. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA FOR FRIDAY.
BOTH WIND AND MINIMUM RH CRITERIA MAY BE MET...AND FUEL MOISTURES
SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGHOUT WITH THE DRYING WINDS
TODAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-501>507.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ051>053-
     058-059-501-503-505.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-062-068>072-082-502-504-506-508>510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-
     058.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ035-048-052-059-063-509.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ063>065-507.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG
FIRE WEATHER...HG

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