Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

188 
WWUS82 KGSP 201404
RFWGSP

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
904 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2010

...VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-202300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FW.W.0002.100220T1700Z-100220T2300Z/
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
904 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR HABERSHAM...STEPHENS...FRANKLIN...HART AND ELBERT COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL AND A DRY
AIR MASS WILL ALLOW THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP BELOW
25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
LOW FUEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$
07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
MONDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ON HAND...AS DEEP LAYER
W/SW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT FLIRTED WITH THE
60 DEGREE MARK YESTERDAY...AND THIS MILESTONE SHOULD BE REACHED OR
EVEN EXCEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME THIN CIRRUS PASSING
THROUGH THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT TO SETTLE TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...MODELS ARE STILL FOCUSING ON MONDAY FOR THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE
OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
DURING THE DAY...THUS IT APPEARS SAFE TO REMOVE ALL POP FROM THE
MTNS. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE POINT WHERE PRECIP SHOULD
BREAK OUT BEFORE SUNRISE OVER THE MTNS AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER RIDGETOPS.
PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE THEIR WARMING
TREND...TO THE POINT WHERE NOW IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
ANYTHING BUT RAIN EVEN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SO...HAVE CUT BACK
FURTHER AND KEPT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ONLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5K
FEET FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

HPC FAVORS A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THE PASSAGE OF LOW
PRESSURE ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY FAST MOVING AND HAS ENOUGH
GOING FOR IT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME HIGH PRECIP CHANCES...BUT PREFER TO
KEEP POP IN LIKELY RANGE FOR THE TIME BEING. THE NAM IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS SO HAVE CUT BACK ON THE POP FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND LIMITED CHANCE ONLY TO THE TN BORDER. FOR THE MOST
PART...EVEN THAT SHOULD BE RAIN AND NOT SNOW...BECAUSE THE MODELS
KEEP AN UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW/TROF HAS SLOWED IN RECENT MODEL RUNS
WHICH KEEPS THE NW FLOW AND COLDER AIR AT BAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALL
THE GUIDANCE WAS WARMER THAN THE OLD FORECAST SO HAVE MADE AN UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT OF 3-5 DEGREES FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN
RATHER DISORGANIZED NW FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REAL QUESTION
REVOLVES AROUND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS RUN
THE SPECTRUM FROM WET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA PER THE
GFS...BASICALLY DRY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...TO EERILY SIMILAR TO
THE 12-13 FEBRUARY EVENT DEPICTED IN THE GEM. AS SUCH...WITH
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE...I HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH TAPERS OFF WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW AS A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. BASED ON COLD LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...AND
DOUBLE DIGIT NEGATIVE H85 TEMPS SHOWN IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...FEEL LIKE GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY IS MUCH
TOO WARM. I HAVE COOLED HIGHS FOR FRIDAY CONSIDERABLY DOWN TO MID TO
UPPER 40S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...AND 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ALSO...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF NW FLOW POP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY IN THE STRONG CAA SO I HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES TO
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VERY QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE L/V...OR LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP/FLT RESTRICTIONS GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TUE INTO
WED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-202000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
251 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.