Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
736 AM EDT MON APR 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM VIRGINIA AND ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE AREA
THRU MID WEEK. ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...VEERING THE
WIND TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST. FEW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
DO NOT SHOW 850 MB MOISTURE INCREASING UNTIL A BETTER UPSLOPE
COMPONENT DEVELOPS FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT...DESPITE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...AS THE SLIGHTLY
PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND RAISES HEIGHTS ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE BUILDS UPPER RIDGE OVER MS
VALLEY TUE AND MOVES IT OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT. 850MB
HIGH ALSO BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NE. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY AND
THICKNESS VALUES DO NOT LOWER AS MUCH AS WITH PREV MODEL RUNS. WITH
ALL THIS IN MIND KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE AND RAISED TEMPS
ABOUT A CATEGORY THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO ABOUT 10 DEG ABOVE AVG THU
AS 500MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER AREA AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGES IN FROM
THE NE. THEN H5 AND SFC RIDGE BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA AS A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE N. AN ASSOC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE N FRI AND MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT BUT TEMPS WILL
LIKELY STAY WELL ABOVE AVG FRI UNDER MSUNNY SKIES. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT WE MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS OVER MAINLY THE N MTNS FOR SAT...WITH SLIGHT CHC
POPS SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE NC MTNS AND INTO THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SUN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE COOLER SAT-SUN
WITH LOWER THICKNESS AND INCREASED CLOUDS...BUT NIGHT TIME LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS COME UP FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. ONLY A FEW CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER A FEW LOW CUMULUS COULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LIMITED 850 MB MOISTURE. THE
DEW POINT DEPRESSION IS RATHER LOW IN THE MAV GUIDANCE TUESDAY
MORNING...AND ONLY A BIT GREATER IN THE MET GUIDANCE...BUT NEITHER
CARRIES A VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...AND THE TAF WILL REMAIN VFR.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ...AND THEN TO
THE SOUTHEAST AT KAVL BY EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS
DIMINISHING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
HAVE MOISTURE AT AROUND 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
VEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE UPSLOPE IN NATURE. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
BECOME RATHER SMALL IN THE MAV GUIDANCE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AT KAND
AND ESPECIALLY AT KAVL. NO RESTRICTIONS ARE ADVERTISED IN THE
GUIDANCE...AND NONE WILL BE CARRIED AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REMAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE MTNS. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AGAIN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE. DRYING FOLLOWS THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...JAT/MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 AM EDT MON APR 12 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-130830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
416 AM EDT MON APR 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.