High Wind Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

210 
WWUS72 KGSP 241634
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1134 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...

.SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TODAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS FROM BREVARD AND ASHEVILLE EASTWARD.

GAZ010-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-242000-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100124T2000Z/
RABUN-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN
1134 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 40
MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL AFFECT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET AS WELL AS SOUTH AND EAST
FACING SLOPES. STRONG WINDS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN SOME VALLEYS
OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST...INCLUDING THE MARSHALL AND HOT SPRINGS
AREAS. MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS...SUCH AS BRYSON CITY AND
ROBBINSVILLE...WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-069>072-082-SCZ006>014-019-
250045-
/O.NEW.KGSP.LW.Y.0001.100124T2000Z-100125T0500Z/
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...
MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...
CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...
GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...
CHESTER...GREENWOOD
1134 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS OF OPEN WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

&&

$$

NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-501-503-505-242000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-100124T2000Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...
BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
1134 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TODAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3500 FEET AND SOME OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH. HOWEVER...VALLEYS OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST...SUCH AS
THE FRENCH BROAD...SHOULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GAZ017-242000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-100124T2000Z/
HABERSHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CLARKESVILLE
1134 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TODAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...ARE EXPECTED AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET AND ALONG SOUTH
AND EAST FACING SLOPES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

NED

332 
WWUS72 KGSP 242018
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...WINDY CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY IN THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

.GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN
PICK UP ON MONDAY...WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
DAY.

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-250500-
/O.EXP.KGSP.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100124T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.100124T2018Z-100124T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.100125T1500Z-100125T2300Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN
318 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY. THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GAZ010-250500-
/O.EXP.KGSP.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100124T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.100125T1500Z-100125T2300Z/
RABUN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CLAYTON
318 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY. THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

NCZ033-049-050-053-064-065-250500-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-100124T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.100124T2018Z-100124T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.100125T1500Z-100125T2300Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...
BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
318 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GAZ017-NCZ501-503-505-250500-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-100124T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.100125T1500Z-100125T2300Z/
HABERSHAM-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CLARKESVILLE
318 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON MONDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-069>072-082-SCZ006>014-019-
250500-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.100125T1500Z-100125T2300Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-100125T0500Z/
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...
MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...
CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...
GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...
CHESTER...GREENWOOD
318 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. 

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WIND SPEEDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
AREAS OF OPEN WATER.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GAZ018-NCZ035-068-502-504-506>510-SCZ001>005-250500-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.100125T1500Z-100125T2300Z/
STEPHENS-ALEXANDER-CLEVELAND-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...SHELBY...LENOIR...MORGANTON...
MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS
318 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY. 

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AS A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTLES IN THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST...ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID-WEST STATES TONIGHT. THE LOW IS
UNUSUALLY DEEP...AND THE MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET CORE IS VERY
FAR TO THE SOUTH...ORIENTED FROM THE SE TX COAST TO MIDDLE TN. AN
AREA OF STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE EXITS EAST OF THE JET CORE...
PARTICULARLY WHERE THE SUB-TROPICAL AND POLAR JETS SPLIT. THIS UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND WIND ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE FA TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT AN USUALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...THE UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
RESULT IN A CONSIDERABLE LLVL AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS...WHICH MEANS THEY WILL BE BACKED...OR MORE SOUTHERLY...THAN
WHAT WE OFTEN SEE WITH THIS KIND OF SYSTEM. THIS WILL HELP STRONG
WINDS TRANSLATE DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NC MTNS AND PARTS OF NE
GA. FFC REPORTED THAT WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 50 MPH ALREADY OVER
THEIR NRN MTN COUNTIES. THEREFORE I/VE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR PARTS OF THE SW AND CENTRAL NC MTNS. I DON/T THINK THE FLOW WILL
QUITE BE BACKED ENOUGH FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE FRENCH
BROAD VALLEY. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF STABLE NEAR-SFC AIR TO
OVERCOME THERE AS WELL. STILL...IT/S SOMETHING TO WATCH.

THE STRONG JET AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE ALREADY UP FOR THE
ENTIRE FA...AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. WHILE THE DURATION OF THE
PCPN WON/T BE THAT GREAT...PCPN RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD RISK IS FAIRLY HIGH...EVEN THOUGH THIS
IS A COOL SEASON EVENT. THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE THAT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS IN THE PRONOUNCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH COULD
DISRUPT THE FLOW AND LOWER QPF AMOUNTS...BUT THAT/S JUST NOT
SOMETHING WE CAN BE SURE OF.

THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS SEVERE WEATHER. THE SOUNDINGS IN THE WARM
SECTOR WILL BE MOIST ADIABATIC TODAY...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS BEEN ADVERTISING A PRE-FRONTAL MESO
LOW TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING
HOURS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. IN FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE A
VARIANT OF THIS. EVEN WITH PALTRY CAPE...THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER FORCING SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO DEVELOP AN ORGANIZED
MCS. CONSIDERING THAT THE LLVL HELICITY WILL BE VERY STRONG...AS
WILL AS 60+ KT 0-3KM SHEAR...THE LINE SHOULD EXHIBIT SEVERAL BOWS
AND LEWPS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED QLCS TORNADOES WILL BE HIGH
ALONG THE I-85 CORRIDOR...ALL THE WAY FROM NE GA INTO THE SRN NC
PIEDMONT...WHERE THE REMNANT COLD AIR DAMMING BOUNDARY WILL HEIGHTEN
CONVERGENCE ON 0-1KM HELICITY.

THE MCS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FA BETWEEN 04-06 UTC. AFTER
THAT...THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY CALM AS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SUN...TOOK A MODEL BLEND (MAINLY 00Z GFS/NAM) FOR THE
SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS WILL BE NW FLOW SNOW MONDAY NGT
INTO TUESDAY NGT...AND WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTNS.

A MID LVL VORTEX INVOF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ABSORBED
BY A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL HAVE DROPPED SWD INTO THE HUDSON BAY
AREA. OVERALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA WITH
THE TROF AXIS INVOF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A STRONG WIND
PROFILE WILL EXIST ACRS THE AREA...WITH DEEP WLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS AGREE ON DEEP MIXING MON AFTN...AS TEMPS WILL BE
ABLE TO REACH MID-UPR 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. WITH H85 FLOW IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE AND STRONG CAA...EXPECT AT LEAST LAKE WIND ADV GUSTS
(AND POTENTIALLY WND ADV GUSTS)...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES SYS WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE MTNS. GUIDANCE IS NOT THAT BULLISH ON QPF...AS
LLVL FLOW RMNS WSWLY TO ABT DUE WLY INTO MON NGT. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST SNOW LVLS FALL...WITH THE GFS A LTL FASTER
AT BRINGING THE 0C H85 ISOTERM THRU THE MTNS. THE MOS TEMPS LOOK
FAIRLY WARM...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF ANY SNOW ACCUM THRU MON AFTN.
A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A VEERING OF THE WINDS TO WNW OCCURS
OVRNGT MON NGT...AND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHC FOR SOME SHWRS ALONG
THE NC/TN LINE. H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE -5 TO -10 C RANGE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...SO SNOW LVLS SHUD DROP TO THE VLY FLOORS. FOR
NOW...I DIDN/T FEEL CONFIDENT ENUF TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY JUST YET.
SNOW ACCUMS LOOK TO BE 1-2" IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS.

ANOTHER WINDY DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY ACRS THE ENTIRE FA...WITH
NW FLOW SNOW SHWR ACTIVITY ONGOING. MIXING WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DEEP
BUT STILL SIMILAR LLVL WINDS TO WHAT/S PROGGED FOR MONDAY. TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE COOLER ON TUES DUE TO LWR LLVL THICKNESSES AND
CONTINUED CAA (HIGHS IN THE 30S-L40S MTNS AND LWR 50S PIEDMONT).

TUES NGT...SNOW SHWRS SHUD WANE...AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE GULF
STATES AND TN VLY. GENERALLY SUBSIDING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHUD
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S (MAYBE A FEW TEENS NEAR THE MTN
TOPS).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY...AGAIN THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE BUT DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARD TO TIMING. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND WITH
THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF I WILL FOLLOW IT FOR THE
DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE QUIET DAYS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE DESERT SW OPENS UP AND EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD AS A SHARP TROF THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE
ECMWF...AND THE GFS FOR THAT MATTER...HAVE CONSISTENTLY KEPT THE FA
ON THE NORTH AND COLD SIDE OF THE LOW WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP
ENTERING THE NC MOUNTAINS SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. PRECIP CONTINUES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES FALL. ONE NEW WRINKLE IN
THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 12Z RUN IS THIS AREA OF PRECIP THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
DEGREE OF A DEFORMATION ZONE UNDERNEATH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT
MAX. THICKNESS VALUES FROM THE ECMWF ON THE PTYPE NOMOGRAM WOULD
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AND THEN
SNOW EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY. I HAVE HANDLED SATURDAY WITH A
WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN TO DEPICT
THIS AREA OF PRECIP. WILL CERTAINLY BE AN EVENT WORTH FURTHER
SCRUTINY IN THE DAYS TO COME AND IF THE CURRENT THERMAL STRUCTURE
CONTINUES WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL BE
NEEDED ON SATURDAY TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
THE SREF PROBABILITY OF 1000 FOOT CIGS STAYS LOW UNTIL AROUND 12
UTC...IMPLYING THAT IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 10 TO 11 UTC.
THE SFC WINDS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO DUE EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS A TROF AXIS WILL LAY ACROSS THE AIRFIELD. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR
WINDS TO STAY A HAIR SOUTH OF DUE EAST...AND THAT/S THE TREND I/VE
FOLLOWED. WINDS WILL BECOME SE LATER TODAY. AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME AN ISSUE TOWARD MORNING.
I/LL HOLD OFF FOR NOW...BUT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO GO IN THE
TAF. LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY ONCE THEY MOVE
IN. A SQUALL LINE WILL CROSS THE AIRFIELD SOMETIME BETWEEN 22 AND 04
UTC THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL LIFT BEHIND THE LINE AND WINDS WILL
WEAKEN...BUT MODERATE RAIN WILL PERSIST FOR A WHILE.

ELSEWHERE...CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS DRY
AIR LOW LEVEL AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE SREF
PROBS OF 1000 FOOT CIGS...LIFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 09 AND 12 UTC. KAVL...HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE IFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD OWING TO THEIR HIGHER ELEVATION. THE LOW CIGS
WILL LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE NE TO
ENE...GRADUALLY VEERING TO SE AND INCREASING LATER IN THE DAY. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME AN ISSUE AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. I/LL ADD THAT SOON...ONCE I HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THE
SHEAR PROFILE. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THE LINE
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE UPSTATE. ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS CROSSES
THE REGION...WINDS WILL WEAKEN BUT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.

OUTLOOK...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH VFR MAY BE UNATTAINABLE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LACK
OF HEATING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EAST OF THE MTNS ON MONDAY...BUT
NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE MTNS MON NIGHT-TUE NGHT. FAIR
WX IS EXPECTED WED AND THU.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ010.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501>510.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ048-051-
     052-058-059-062.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>007-010>012-
     019.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     SCZ008-009-013-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

NCZ033-048>053-059-065-501-503-505-242045-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
NORTHERN JACKSON-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
334 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 35 OF 45 MPH MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT IF THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY. HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT MAY BRING THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN INTO THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ058-062>064-507-509-SCZ001>003-242045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-GRAHAM-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
334 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
OVERNIGHT IF THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD BRING THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN INTO THE LOWER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ502-504-506-508-510-SCZ004>007-010>012-019-
242045-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
334 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-242045-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
334 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GERAPETRITIS