Flash Flood Warning 49, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

782 
WGUS72 KGSP 211739
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

GAC137-241-257-SCC073-212215-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-100821T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STEPHENS GA-HABERSHAM GA-RABUN GA-OCONEE SC-
139 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR
OCONEE...RABUN...HABERSHAM AND STEPHENS COUNTIES...

AT 125 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND RAIN GAGE 
REPORTS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS PRODUCING 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH AN HOUR AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE 
THE WARNED AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS LOCATED IN THE TIGER...SKY 
VALLEY AND MOCCASIN CREEK STATE PARK AREAS IN SOUTHERN RABUN AND 
NORTHERN HABERSHAM COUNTIES. RAPID RISES ARE EXPECTED ALONG LITTLE 
PANTHER AND TIGER CREEKS AND ALSO ALONG THE SOQUE RIVER. 

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL ONE 
INCH OF RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA OVE THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF THE ROAD IS FLOODED DON'T CROSS IT...TURN AROUND DO NOT DROWN. 


&&

LAT...LON 3487 8367 3495 8356 3499 8356 3500 8309
      3502 8300 3451 8295 3447 8301 3453 8311
      3447 8320 3447 8338 3445 8340 3448 8356
      3443 8362 3450 8368 3454 8364 3466 8367
      3476 8363 3480 8368

$$
PAT

404 
WGUS72 KGSP 212033
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

GAC137-241-257-SCC073-212215-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-100821T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STEPHENS GA-HABERSHAM GA-RABUN GA-OCONEE SC-
433 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR
OCONEE...RABUN...HABERSHAM AND STEPHENS COUNTIES...

AT 426 PM EDT...RAIN GAGES ACROSS OCONEE...RABUN...HABERSHAM..AND 
STEPHENS COUNTY INDICATE THAT ONE AND A HALF TO OVER FOUR INCHES OF 
RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE THE LATE MORNING HOURS. COUNTY OFFICIALS IN 
RABUN COUNTY REPORTED THAT FLOODING WAS ONGOING AROUND 
RABUN...LAKEMONT..AND CLAYTON. THOUGH NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT 
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS AND GENERAL HIGH WATER 
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 8367 3495 8356 3499 8356 3500 8309
      3502 8300 3451 8295 3447 8301 3453 8311
      3447 8320 3447 8338 3445 8340 3448 8356
      3443 8362 3450 8368 3454 8364 3466 8367
      3476 8363 3480 8368

$$

BSH

503 
WGUS72 KGSP 212209
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

GAC137-241-257-SCC073-212218-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-100821T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STEPHENS GA-HABERSHAM GA-RABUN GA-OCONEE SC-
609 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM EDT FOR OCONEE...
RABUN...HABERSHAM AND STEPHENS COUNTIES...

RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS 
AND GENERAL HIGH WATER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE 
HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS RABUN COUNTY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL 
EARLIER TODAY.

LAT...LON 3487 8367 3495 8356 3499 8356 3500 8309
      3502 8300 3451 8295 3447 8301 3453 8311
      3447 8320 3447 8338 3445 8340 3448 8356
      3443 8362 3450 8368 3454 8364 3466 8367
      3476 8363 3480 8368

$$

BSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1110 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OR MAKE
VERY LITTLE PROGRESS ON MONDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THE UPPER
VORT APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHICH
SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF TERRAIN EFFECTS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WAS ANALYZED OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING...WITH A TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY. A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN
EASTERN GA AT 700 MB AND 850 MB...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE
OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AT
THIS TIME. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...CLOSE TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WAS NOTED. THE
NAM MOVES THIS UPPER FEATURE VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO SC BY
TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF ITS INSTABILITY REMAINING WEST OF INTERSTATE
77. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE
EAST TODAY...PROVIDING A BETTER UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. POPS WILL BE RAISED IN THE WEST TODAY...
PARTICULARLY IN SC AND GA...AND QPF RAISED AS WELL. SO FAR
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING ENOUGH TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LIMITED...BUT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SLOWS...AND INSTABILITY INCREASES
WITH HEATING...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD COME UP. FORTUNATELY...THIS
AREA HAS NOT HAS AS MUCH RECENT RAIN AS THE NC PIEDMONT...AND NO
FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE CLOUDS COVER...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS CROSS THE AREA TODAY.

CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE
ALONG THE TN LINE LATE AS A NRN STREAM THROUGH AS IT/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MTNS. I/M NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT OWING TO THE TIME OF DAY A FAIRLY WEAK
FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...BETTER AGREEMENT IS SEEN THIS MORNING WRT TO
THE ULVL PATTERN SUN THROUGH MON. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW CLOSING OFF THE
UPPER LOW AND ACTUALLY DEEPENING AND KEEPING IT NORTH MORESO THAN
EITHER THE NAM OR THE ECMWF BY SUN EVENING. THIS HAS A DISTINCT
AFFECT ON THE TRANSITION OF THE SFC FRONT AND THE AMOUNT OF THETA/E
AIRMASS MIXING EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MON. BASICALLY THE GFS STALLS
THE FRONT OUT ACROSS REGION AND KEEPS THE AIRMASS STAGNANT...WHILE
THE OTHER TWO OP MODELS SWEEP THE FRONT TO THE COAST AND MIX IN A
DECENT AMOUNT OF LOWER THETA/E AIR.

SINCE THE GFS IS BRAND NEW TO THIS IDEA...MORE WEIGHT WILL BE GIVEN
TO THE IDEA OF A FROPA DURING THE DAY MON AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A
PRECIP OR TSTM THREAT THEREAFTER. IN ANY SENSE...THE FRONT WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS GOM TRANS VECTORS DONT REACH THE
TN VALLEY UNTIL LATE SAT. ALSO WITH THE LLVL RIDGE PERSISTING AND
WEAK FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NO EVIDENCE IS NOTED OF AN ERN GOM OR
ATL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA SUN.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW/S IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 IN RANGE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...HOWEVER LOW INSTABILITY AND WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL
NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A HEAVY PRECIP THREAT. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA AND A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE NC
MTN COUNTIES WHERE PERHAPS AN INCH OF PRECIP WILL FALL BTW 12Z SUN
AND 12Z MON. OUTSIDE THE MTNS...MOST LIKELY AROUND A HALF INCH WILL
FALL IN SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD STILL REACH A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE
S/W RIDGE...AND RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MON...BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS WHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS EARLY AND PERHAPS SOME DEGREE OF AIRMASS
MIXING BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST
OF THE CWFA TUE AND SETS UP A RATHER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE CONV POTENTIAL...HOWEVER A FEW
ISOL -SHRA AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE
POSSIBLY ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY A WAVY SFC FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS
LIKES THIS POSSIBILITY MORE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LARGE SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION EXPECTED...A NOD WILL BE GIVEN TO THE
DRIER ECMWF. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT AFT TUE THE UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES QUASI/ZONAL WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE BRINGING A WEAK AND
MOISTURE CHALLENGED SFC FRONT TO THE MTNS EARLY THU. MILDER CONDS
COULD SET UP FRI THROUGH SAT AS A MID/ATL WEDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP.
THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE AFFECTING THIS WEDGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
LOWER THETA/E AIR COULD HOLD MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. HOWEVER BEFORE THEN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD AVG RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CIGS HAVE KEPT FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING. AS A
WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE REGION...THESE CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. THEY COULD EVEN BRIEFLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
LATER IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA...BUT I WON/T
CARRY THAT IN THE TAF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO THE SE
SOMETIME EITHER LATE THIS MORNING OR IN THE EARLY AFTN...THOUGH
TIMING IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. MOST OF ANY PCPN SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF
THE AIRFIELD TODAY...THOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED ORIGINALLY.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUD COVER WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTN OVER THE UPSTATE. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS MAY CROSS MANY OF THE UPSTATE SITES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF THE PRESENT TREND CONTINUES...LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS MAY BE NEEDED. AT KHKY PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF WITHIN THE HOUR. MVFR CIGS AT KAVL ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID
MORNING...THOUGH THAT SAME AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE UPSTATE
CLOUD RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS THAN WHAT/S IN THE TAF
RIGHT NOW.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCT SHRA/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS TO MOST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED MON-WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PLANNING FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT GREATER COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL BE LOWERED BY 500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND DATA.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JAT/MCAVOY
FIRE WEATHER...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
526 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>006-
010>012-019-220930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
526 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE
WEST OF GREENVILLE TODAY. BRIEF...HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ007>009-013-
014-220930-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-
YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
526 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1203 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001-004-010-211745-
ANDERSON-ELBERT-FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-HABERSHAM-HART-OCONEE
MOUNTAINS-RABUN-STEPHENS-
1203 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...HABERSHAM...
HART...OCONEE... RABUN...SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON...STEPHENS AND
WESTERN ELBERT COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 1152 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT WAS PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1
INCH PER HOUR. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WAS MOVE THROUGH STEPHENS AND RABUN
AND HART COUNTIES. RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...
STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS THE RAIN BECOMES HEAVIER DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3411 8304 3417 8311 3426 8312 3425 8334
      3432 8340 3446 8340 3448 8356 3443 8362
      3447 8365 3476 8363 3479 8368 3488 8366
      3499 8355 3500 8309 3466 8284 3461 8286
      3464 8282 3449 8271 3416 8273 3404 8289

PAT