Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING TOWARDS
THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH VERY LITTLE LLVL CIN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PROFILES WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST
WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED PW SHOWS A
LARGE PLUME OF VALUES RANGING 2.25 TO 2.4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE FRONT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD REMAIN CLUSTERS OF SHRA WITH HEAVY RAIN...ONE
OR TWO EMBEDDED TSRA MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WET MICROBURST.

OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EAST OF
THE STALLED FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAIN VIEW OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH VERY LOW LCL LEVELS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT LIKELY TO SCT COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA.
GIVEN THE THICK SKY COVER AND HIGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...I WILL
FAVOR THE MILD MOS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN SIMILAR TO
TODAY...STALLED SFC FEATURE ACROSS THE MTNS...TROPICAL
MOISTURE...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...NEAR TERM MODELS
INDICATE THAT A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION.
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE...I WILL FORECAST LIKELY TO
CATE POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ONE TO TWO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA WED NITE
WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS FOLLOWING SUIT ON THU. WITH SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER THRU THE NITE WED
NITE...BUT SHOW SOME DIURNAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE. EXPECT COVERAGE
TO PICK BACK UP THU WITH THE FRONT STILL IN THE AREA AND WEAK
FORCING ALOFT...AT LEAST EARLY ON. PRECIP CHANCES SHUD SHOW A MAINLY
DIURNAL ENDING TREND THU NITE WITH WLY FLOW DEVELOPING...DECREASING
INSTABILITY AND LOSS OF FORCING. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST FRI. SFC HIGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND NOSES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN A CAD CONFIGURATION. HOWEVER...SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWFA AS SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE INTO THE MID-WEST. MOISTURE MOVES IN ALONG WITH THE SLY
FLOW...SO HAVE BROUGHT CHC POP BACK ACROSS THE WEST AND SLIGHT CHC
POP ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CWFA. KEPT DRY FCST ACROSS THE
EAST WHERE FLOW IS MORE NELY AND MOISTURE IS THE LEAST. A WARM MUGGY
NITE EXPECTED WED NITE WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. KEPT
LOWS NEAR NORMAL THU NITE WITH THE LOSS OF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. HIGHS FRIDAY RETURN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON SAT
WITH HEIGHTS RISING OVER THE FCST AREA AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ORIENTED JUST WEST OF THE CWFA. A FAIRLY HEALTHY H5
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUN. LONG
RANGE MODELS THEN HAVE THIS FEATURE GETTING CAUGHT UP WITHIN A
LARGER UPPER TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO DIG DOWN OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY DAY 7. THE CENTRAL CONUS H5 RIDGE BECOMES POSITIVELY
TILTED AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AT THIS POINT BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER
IT WILL PUSH VERY FAR INTO OUR AREA AS THIS IS BEYOND DAY 7. AT THE
SFC...ON SAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ESSENTIALLY WASH OUT OVER THE
CAROLINAS WHILE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWFA
ON SUN AS A SFC RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH DOWN OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THE EXTENT OF THIS SFC RIDGING IS UNCERTAIN AT PRESENT AS MODELS ALSO
APPEAR TO GENERATE A WEAK SFC LOW TO OUR NE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
EASTERN SEABOARD UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ON SAT
AND SUN WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND POPS TAPER OFF ON
DAYS 6 AND 7. TEMPS WERE LARGELY UNCHANGED AND ARE FCST TO BE ABOUT
2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PROBABLY A
BIT COOLER LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE TERMINAL WILL REMAIN UNDER AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHRA AND TSRA COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THE REST OF THE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER THE MTNS. THE TERMINAL WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SHRA
AND POSSIBLY A TSRA THROUGH 5Z. MOIST PROFILES AND WET GROUND MAY
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT...I WILL
INDICATE MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...FOG SHOULD
STEADILY ERODE AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID MORNING...DUE TO INCREASES IN
INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT FROM AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

ELSEWHERE...ABUNDANT SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS AND
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DURING HEAVY RAIN.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAYTIME. MOIST
PROFILES AND WET GROUND MAY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT...I WILL INDICATE MVFR TO IFR FOG AND CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...FOG SHOULD STEADILY ERODE AND CEILINGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
BY MID MORNING...DUE TO INCREASES IN INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT FROM AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SHRA AND TSRA COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND DECREASE OVERNIGHT. MOIST SOIL
AND LIGHT WIND MAY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG BEFORE
SUNRISE...THICKER FOG MAY EXIST EACH MORNING WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-181945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
335 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY...IF NOT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING
THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

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