Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

454 
WGUS72 KGSP 150536
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

NCC023-150800-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-100815T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BURKE NC-
136 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY...

AT 128 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT RAIN WAS TAPERING OFF ACROSS NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY. 
HOWEVER...AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAD ALREADY FALLEN SINCE 
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FROM TABLE ROCK TO JONAS RIDGE. ANOTHER 
HALF INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL BEFORE IT ENDS COMPLETELY.

THIS MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE 
AREA OUT OF THEIR BANKS. IN PARTICULAR...ROSES CREEK...IRISH 
CREEK...AND STEELS CREEK ARE EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN 
SOME LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS RURAL...SOME PLACES 
ALONG ROSES CREEK ROAD AND FISH HATCHERY ROAD COULD GO UNDER WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 8189 3590 8188 3594 8189 3596 8186
      3593 8182 3589 8179 3588 8178 3583 8172
      3581 8172 3580 8176 3581 8179 3584 8187

$$

MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1005 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY AND WASH OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD5 HAS
PARKED ITSELF OVER THE GA/AL BORDER. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT IS
ALREADY STARTING TO DRIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FFC SOUNDING
THIS EVENING HAD A VERY IMPRESSIVE PW VALUE OF 2.65 INCHES. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING LOOKS WEAK TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE HAS
BEEN SOME COOLING AND EXPANSION OF THE AC LAYER ACROSS THE FA AS
SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF A THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK NRN STREAM WAVE AS NOTED BY RAH. ALSO...AN
OUTFLOW BNDRY WAS MOVING INTO THE SRN NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.
CAPE VALUES WERE STILL OVER 1000 J/KG NORTH OF THE BNDRY...AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG IT. WITH THE HIGH PW AIR...THE
SHOWERS ARE PERSISTENT AND RATHER LARGE. THEY ALSO TURN INTO AREAS
OF STRATIFORM RAIN AND AFFECT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA ONCE THEY WEAKEN.
THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING OWING TO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS. HOWEVER...CELLS HAVE NOT
SHOWN MUCH OF A TENDENCY TO ANCHOR AS THEY ARE BEING PUSHED ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BNDRY. THE AIRMASS OVER THE FOOTHILLS WAS WORKED OVER
MORE TODAY...SO I HOPE NOTHING STRONGER DEVELOPS NEAR THE MTNS AND
STALLS. WHILE NOT AS THREATENING AS EARLIER...I WOULDN/T SAY WE ARE
OUT OF THE WOODS YET AS FAR AS AN ISOLATED AREA OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL GOES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT-SUN. KEPT SIMILAR POPS TO
TODAY WITH BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS AGAIN. WITH CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW THE FLOOD THREAT
CONTINUES SUN AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRYER MID
LEVEL AIR SO THERE WILL ALSO BE A BETTER THREAT OF MICROBURSTS SUN
AFTN. HI TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A DEG OR SO OF TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE BEGINS TO MAKE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN
ITS WAKE FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TRACKS THRU THE
GREAT LAKES...HELPING PUSH A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE FRONT REACHES THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY. WITH THIS FRONT...WEAK (THOUGH PERSISTENT)
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP PWATS GENERALLY 2
INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE FRONT. WITH
RIDGE ALOFT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER FORCING.
HOWEVER...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN SOME AGREEMENT ON GREATER COVERAGE
AND HIGHER QPF ON TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT...AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
SOUPY AIR MASS. SO HAVE GONE WITH MODEL BLEND...WHICH RESULTS IN
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS MONDAY...AND HIGHER POPS TUESDAY (ESPECIALLY IN
THE NC ZONES). MIN TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUDS AND HIGH
DEWPTS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT EXPECTED CLOUD COVER POSES A CHALLENGE FOR MAX
TEMPS. EVEN A LITTLE SUNSHINE EACH AFTERNOON SHOULD GET TEMPS UP
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES...WITH RIDGING HOLDING ON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE TRACKING
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD INVOF LOUISIANA...BUT THEN DIVERGE INTO HOW MUCH
IT INTENSIFIES AND WHERE IT TRACKS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE WESTERLIES
ALONG US/CAN BORDER EVOLVE AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS A TROF
ROTATES THRU THE GREAT LAKES...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY. THIS
BNDRY LINGERS JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ALONG THE BNDRY. SO EXPECT DECENT
COVERAGE OF MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION THRU THE EXTENDED.
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN OUTFLOW BNDRY WILL WORK ACROSS THE AIRFIELD FROM THE SE
IN ABOUT AN HOUR. IT WON/T DO MUCH TO CHANGE THE WIND
DIRECTION...BUT SCT SHRA/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BNDRY AND I HAVE
CB AND VCSH TIL 4 UTC. IF THE LINE FILLS IN...A TEMPO OR PREVAILING
GROUP MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CIGS CAME IN ONLY BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT. WITH
NO STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING...YET A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH
SE FLOW...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH THEY
PROBABLY WILL BE SOMEWHAT PATCHY. FOR NOW I/VE GONE WITH PREVAILING
IFR CIGS STARTING AT 0900 UTC...AND LASTING WELL INTO THE MORNING.
SCT SHRA/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TMRW...THOUGH PCPN CHANCES AREN/T
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ME TO INCLUDE A CB GROUP ATTM.

ELSEWHERE...STRATIFORM RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT KGSP AND KGMU FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. I ONLY WENT WITH MVFR
CIGS OVER THE UPSTATE TONIGHT...THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN TODAY IS
LIKELY TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHES OF IFR STRATUS ONCE
AGAIN. I/VE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH SCT008 IN THE UPSTATE TAFS.
HOWEVER...I WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE IFR STRATUS MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN WHAT I HAVE IMPLIED IN THE TAF. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
TMRW...WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY AROUND IN THE AFTN
ONCE AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT MRNG FOG/LOW CLOUDS AND MAINLY AFTN-EVE CONVECTION
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ESP OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RB
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ033-036-037-048>053-057>059-069>072-082-SCZ009>014-
019-152000-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
349 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PERHAPS
EXCESSIVE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A WARM AND EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ035-056-062>065-068-501>510-SCZ001>008-152000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-
349 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. SEVERAL OF THEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...PERHAPS EXCESSIVE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A WARM AND EXTREMELY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
902 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW GREENVILLE         34.79N 82.43W
08/14/2010                   GREENVILLE         SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BOILING SPRINGS ROAD CLOSED AT THE SUGAR CREEK BRIDGE.
            WATER ONE FOOT DEEP WAS RUNNING ACROSS THE ROAD.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1059 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW GREENVILLE         34.79N 82.43W
08/14/2010                   GREENVILLE         SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BOILING SPRINGS ROAD CLOSED AT THE BRUSHY CREEK BRIDGE.
            WATER ONE FOOT DEEP WAS RUNNING ACROSS THE ROAD.

&&

KRENTZ