Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN AND
NEAR THE MTNS WHERE S TO SW UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EASILY
TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOIST AIRMASS. WEAK WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OUT INTO THE ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LINGERING SFC TROUGH WILL ALSO
PROVIDE SOME COVERAGE OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MOIST PROFILES AND FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14 KFT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
MAKE THE SEVERE THREAT RATHER MARGINAL. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING
OF CELLS OVER WET ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS WILL MAKE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING THE BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO DECAY IN
PIEDMONT SECTIONS TONIGHT...BUT THE LACK OF UPPER FORCING IN THE
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW COVERAGE TO STEADILY DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE THINKING IS THAT THE NAM SOLUTION
DEPICTING HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG A BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE
REGION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IS OVERDONE. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
IS LIKELY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THU
MORNING AT PRESENT.

ON THU...A SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CARVE OUT OVER THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MTNS SHOULD BE THE FIRST
AREA OF INITIATION AGAIN ON THU AFTN WITH SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTN TO AID
LIKELY MTN COVERAGE...AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6 DEG
C/KM COULD MAKE TSTMS A BIT STRONGER. THERE MAY ALSO BE SLIGHTLY
MORE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE SOUNDINGS TO MARGINALLY INCREASE THE
DOWNBURST THREAT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THU THAN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM IN THE NC MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING... WHERE WE WILL
HAVE HIGHER POPS ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENT AXIS. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD WANE IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND LOCAL
FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE. MEANWHILE...A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT WAS
NOTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS A RESULT WE WILL KEEP
SMALL POPS GOING NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INTERESTING SET-UP FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS IN VARIOUS DEGREES BRING
SOME SORT OF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE. PWATS
INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES. WITH HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO FALL A BIT
AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAIN. HAVE KEPT POPS RIGHT AROUND 50
PERCENT AS DIFFICULT TO FOCUS ON CERTAIN MESO-SCALE FEATURES WITH
DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. I.E. THE GFS WAS FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH
(ALTHOUGH) IT WAS INDICATING A HIGHLY DIVERGENT PATTERN IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE NAM FOCUSING ON OUR CWA...AND SREF SMOOTHED
THINGS OUT CONSIDERABLY.

THERE MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION SATURDAY WITH A LACK OF SFC
FOCUS...SLIGHTLY LESS PWATS AND BAND OF WLY'S STILL REMAINING NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSHOT WE HAVE POPS A FEW POINTS UNDER
FRIDAY'S VALUES.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDE DURING THIS PART OF THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...A BIT MORE RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
REGION IN THE WRN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...COUPLED WITH MORE TROFFING
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND YET ANOTHER UPPER FEATURE MOVING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WILL COMBINE TO PROMOTE AN AMPLIFICATION IN
THE MEAN HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS A RESULT A NWLY FLOW WILL
TRY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

WITH MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...AND EXPECTED VERY
GOOD INSOLATION...COULD BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. WILL START THINGS
OUT WITH LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHANCE IN PIEDMONT. WE HAVE LEFT
AN OPEN ENDED CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE
MODELS.

OTHER THAN UPSLOPE DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE NC MOUNTAIN MONDAY...IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...HAVE KEPT OTHER PLACES DRY.

DIFFERENCE START TO COME IN PLAY TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS RETURN
MOISTURE TRIES TO MAKE A RUN BACK TOWARD OUR REGION...WITH RETURNING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED TREND OF HPC...NEW GFS AND
EARLIER EUROPEANS WITH SMALL CHANCE WRN FORECAST AREA.

LITTLE QUIBBLE WITH MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING JUST NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AIRFIELD. THE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS KEEPING THUNDER OUT OF
THE OBSERVATION SO FAR. WILL RIDE ON A VICINITY SHOWER REMARK ALONG
CB CLOUD TYPES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT
LATE THIS EVENING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP AFT 08Z. IFR IS POSSIBLE BUT IS NOT SUGGESTED BY
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT MVFR FOR NOW. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER CIRCA 13Z TO 14Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTN WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
KAVL HAD A THUNDERSTORM AT ISSUANCE TIME AND WILL LIKELY HAVE
THUNDER IN THE VICINITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KHKY
WILL SEE THE NEXT GREATEST CHANCE...WITH JUST A VCSH MENTION
WARRANTED FOR NOW. THE UPSTATE TAF SITES MAY SEE TSRA EARLY THIS
EVENING ON THE STRENGTH OF OUTFLOWS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO IFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE KAVL TO KHKY. CIGS WILL
LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH THU MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TROUGH IN THE VICINITY.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THU THROUGH SAT. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK
EACH DAY. DRYING IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...TS
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-030815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
405 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...
AND MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

SCZ010-022145-
ANDERSON-
513 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM EDT...

AT 509 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF NUBERG...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HARTWELL...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION...

IVA...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3426 8276 3427 8276 3430 8279 3435 8282
      3436 8282 3441 8264 3426 8266 3425 8268

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

GAZ028-022145-
HART-
518 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HART COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM EDT...

AT 517 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NUBERG...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF HARTWELL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN HART COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION...

NUBERG...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3429 8299 3438 8284 3430 8279 3429 8279
      3424 8294

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

SCZ010-022230-
ANDERSON-
548 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY THROUGH
630 PM EDT...

AT 542 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF IVA...OR 13 MILES EAST OF
HARTWELL...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO STARR AND
  IVA.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3422 8276 3427 8276 3430 8279 3437 8283
      3438 8283 3447 8254 3435 8252 3421 8274

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
551 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

NCZ070>072-082-SCZ009-022245-
CABARRUS-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-UNION-YORK-
551 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CABARRUS...SOUTHERN
GASTON...SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG...UNION AND YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 645
PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CLOVER...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF GASTONIA...TO THE CHARLOTTE AREA MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO I-77 AT
  I-85...CAROWINDS...MINERAL SPRINGS...UNIONVILLE...FAIRVIEW...
  YORK...TEGA CAY...SHARON...ROCK HILL...MCCONNELLS...LAKE WYLIE...
  FORT MILL...CLOVER...CATAWBA...BULLOCK CREEK...CENTER CITY
  CHARLOTTE...SOUTHPARK MALL...EASTLAND MALL...PINEVILLE...MINT
  HILL...MATTHEWS...MIDLAND...CROWDERS...CRAMERTON...BELMONT...
  WINGATE...WEDDINGTON...WAXHAW...TRINITY...STURDIVANTS...
  STALLINGS...NEW SALEM...MONROE...MARSHVILLE AND INDIAN TRAIL.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3483 8032 3483 8080 3494 8079 3505 8089
      3497 8089 3495 8086 3483 8087 3483 8144
      3523 8128 3530 8067 3523 8046 3519 8049
      3517 8046 3517 8040 3518 8038 3517 8030

STUREY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
555 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

SCZ011-022230-
ABBEVILLE-
555 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ABBEVILLE COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 551 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUE WEST...OR 8 MILES NORTH
OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN ABBEVILLE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION...

DUE WEST...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3426 8249 3439 8246 3440 8244 3442 8230
      3424 8239

LANE