Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 AM EDT TUE JUN 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST AND CROSSES THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THEN ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS BEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT/I-77 CORRIDOR
WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. DEEP LAYER FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING AND AS SUCH ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITHIN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WANE. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD
AND CANCEL THE REMAINING WATCH AREA AS COVERAGE AND RAINFALL
INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE FURTHER
FLOODING CONCERNS.

FOR TODAY...REMNANT UPPER VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD CLOSED
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE BACKGROUND WESTERLY FLOW
AND PUSH WELL EAST OF THE FA. THIS WILL LARGELY LEAVE THE REGION IN
ZONAL FLOW WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT THAN WE HAVE SEEN
IN DAYS PAST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY. MODELS
DEPICT GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE EAST AS SOME DEGREE OF LEE TROFING DEVELOPS. WITH UPPER
60S DEW POINTS AND WARMER TEMPS THAN WE SAW TODAY...EXPECT MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH 0-3KM
SHEAR ON THE WEAK SIDE (10KTS OR LESS) COVERAGE COULD BE BORDERLINE
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS. ALSO...WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL CREATE THE THREAT
FOR FAIRLY SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WITH STILL RESPECTABLE PWATS. SEVERE THREAT IS NON ZERO AS A
WET MICROBURST OR TWO CAN/T BE DISCOUNTED WITH SUCH WEAK AMBIENT
SHEAR. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SCATTERED
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT DURING THE VERY EARLY
MORNING HOURS BUT THEN EXPECT ACTIVITY TO FALL OFF EVERYWHERE.
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED IS REPLACED BY LOW
AMPLITUDE TROF ON THU WHICH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR FRI. WEAK SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS FLOW FROM TIME TO TIME.
THE MDLS ARE NOW IN CONSENSUS THAT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA WED...WITH ONLY MINIMAL DRYING ALONG THE WRN AND NRN CWFA
BOUNDARIES. IN ADDITION...THE WARMING MID LEVELS THAT WERE
PREVIOUSLY FCST...NOW DO NOT MATERIALIZE. THIS WILL LEAD TO CAPES TO
APPROACH OR EVEN RISE INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY. THEREFORE...SCT
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...BUT FAVORING THE
MTNS...NE GA AND THE UPSTATE. HIGHS WED AND LOWS WED NITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA THU WITH SOME WEAK UPPER
SUPPORT. HAVE LIMITED POP TO HIGH CHC FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT LIKELY
POP WILL BE NEEDED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWFA. CONVECTION SHUD STILL
BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS THE FORCING IS WEAK. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN AND SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS
WILL BE EVEN MORE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS
THRU THE PERIOD WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW FROM TIME
TO TIME. AT THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DRAG WEAK
COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA NEARLY EVERY DAY. THAT SAID...THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN EACH MDL FAVORING HIGHER POP ON DIFFERENT
DAYS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP EXTENDED FCST NEARLY AS IS WITH ISOLATED
TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY AND TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THIS IS THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. BIGGEST NEAR TERM
ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW QUICKLY CIGS ARE ABLE TO SETTLE INTO
IFR AS UPGLIDE FLOW CONTINUES TO FORCE THE LOW STRATUS DECK THROUGH
SUNRISE. EXPECT SOME BOUNCING AROUND OF CIG HEIGHTS THROUGH ABOUT
09Z WHEN I ANTICIPATE WE WILL FINALLY SETTLE INTO CONSISTENT IFR
CONDITIONS WITH MVFR FOG. FLOW THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY...TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE CB MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND A LINGERING VCSH INTO THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE NC PIEDMONT WILL BE THE LAST AREA TO SEE A
REDUCTION IN OVERALL COVERAGE.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. CIGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND
ANYWHERE FROM BRIEFLY VFR TO IFR THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WHEN THEY SHOULD
GO IFR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KAVL. THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS. THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...THOUGH STILL FAIRLY LIGHT WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS WITH
THE BEST CONVERGENCE. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRICTIONS
STARTING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...THOUGH IT COULD BE MORE OF A FOG
SETUP MORESO THAN CIG RESTRICTIONS. BEST TIME FOR THIS WILL BE JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD SO WILL GO NO LOWER THAN MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.

AT KAND...WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AMEND THE TAF BECAUSE OF MULTIPLE
SENSOR FAILURE AFTER LIGHTNING STRIKE.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MVFR TO IFR CIG/VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...BSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
950 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ059-062>065-509-510-SCZ001>007-010-020200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-
950 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>058-068>072-082-501>508-
SCZ008-009-011>014-019-020200-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-CHEROKEE-
YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
950 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

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