Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
800 AM EDT TUE APR 6 2010

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(515 AM EDT TUE APR 6 2010)
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL
CUT ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 70S SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WHILE COOLER TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL BE FOUND NORTH.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(515 AM EDT TUE APR 5 2010)
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

WHILE WE WILL ENTER INTO A BIT OF A LULL THIS MORNING...THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING INTO OUR CWA WILL POSE A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING THE WARM FRONT REACHING THE I-96
REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ML COMPUTED CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH SFC
VORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND GOOD 0-1 KM SRH ARE CAUSE FOR
CONCERN. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE ON THE TABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOWER LCLS OF 1000-2000
FT ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.

MTVS ARE POINTED AT THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
MOISTURE FLUX CONV WILL BE PRESENT AS THE CONVECTION RE-FIRES. PWATS
MAY REACH 1.3-1.4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE SFC LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER
WEDNESDAY AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY LATE WED/EARLY
THU. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50.

&&

.LONG TERM...(415 AM EDT MON APR 5 2010)
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

THE COOLER WEATHER CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY IS BRIEF AS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN ALOFT RESULTS IN THE H5 TROUGH OVER THE REGION BEING BOOTED
OUT BY 12Z SATURDAY. A RISK OF FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
STILL EXISTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON EXTENT
OF CLEARING AND WIND SPEEDS. VEGETATION IS WAY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
THIS YEAR SO ALTHOUGH NOT UNUSUAL TO GET A FREEZE IN EARLY APRIL IT
IS SOMETHING THAT FARMERS AND GARDENERS ARE PROBABLY VERY CONCERNED
ABOUT.

DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES LEADS TO RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION THIS WEEKEND AND AN EVENTUAL
RENEWAL OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THUS ANOTHER WARM UP LOOKS TO BE IN
STORE BEGINNING SATURDAY AND HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. HAVE
KEPT THINGS DRY THROUGH MONDAY AS IT APPEARS NO APPRECIABLE RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS UNTIL MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(800 AM EDT TUE APR 6 2010)
NEXT CLUSTER OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
SHOULD ARRIVE AT MKG AROUND 13Z AND LAN/JXN AROUND 15Z. THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE A QUICK-HITTER OF ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO OF THUNDER ALONG
THE I-94 CORRIDOR.... WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING JUST NORTH OF
THERE TOWARD 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY 15-25 KNOTS ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN NEXT CHC OF THUNDER FOR I-94 CORRIDOR PROBABLY NOT
TIL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

VERY DIFFICULT/LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE I-96 CORRIDOR. THIS ROUND
OF CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROBABLY LINGER LONGER
THAN FOR THE I-94 CORRIDOR AREA AND PREVENT MUCH OF A NWD SURGE OF
THE WARM FRONT... SO BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER
NORTH I-96. WILL THEREFORE KEEP MKG/GRR/LAN IFR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/LGT FOG AFTER THE THUNDER THREAT
DIMINISHES LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...(415 AM EDT TUE APR 6 2010)
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT TO MARINERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE GREATEST WAVE HEIGHTS WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH 2 TO 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(415 AM EDT TUE APR 6 2010)
RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY IS
ANTICIPATED. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...(415 AM EDT TUE APR 6 2010)
GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL...LITTLE IF ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
PRESENT FOR THE ENTIRE GRR CWA. CONDITIONS WILL NOT DRY OUT UNTIL
THURSDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI....NONE.
LM....NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     HOVING/LAURENS
SHORT TERM:   HOVING/LAURENS
LONG TERM:    MEADE
AVIATION:     MEADE
MARINE:       HOVING
HYDROLOGY:    HOVING
FIRE WEATHER: HOVING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
510 AM EDT TUE APR 6 2010

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-070815-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
510 AM EDT TUE APR 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE EAST AT 40 TO 60 MPH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR AND COULD RESULT IN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING WHERE STORMS PERSIST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A LANSING TO
SOUTH HAVEN LINE.

SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
TOTAL RAINFALL BY THURSDAY MORNING COULD EXCEED THREE INCHES.

FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND ALSO
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LMZ844>849-070815-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
510 AM EDT TUE APR 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL
BE EAST AT 40 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND ALSO
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MEADE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1051 AM EDT TUE APR 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     HAIL             CLARKSVILLE             42.84N 85.24W
04/06/2010  E0.50 INCH       IONIA              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1057 AM EDT TUE APR 06 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     HAIL             BYRON CENTER            42.81N 85.72W
04/06/2010  M0.75 INCH       KENT               MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

1025 AM     HAIL             DORR                    42.73N 85.72W
04/06/2010  M0.75 INCH       ALLEGAN            MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL FELL FOR 8 TO 10 MINUTES

1026 AM     HAIL             DUTTON                  42.84N 85.59W
04/06/2010  M0.75 INCH       KENT               MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

1033 AM     FLOOD            JENISON                 42.91N 85.82W
04/06/2010                   OTTAWA             MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            2 FEET OF STANDING WATER IN ROAD

&&

JK