Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
500 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT LONG TERM AND AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...(500 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010)
CLEAR SKIES AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXISTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A
STRONGER FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS SUNDAY
MAY BE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(500 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)

THE SRN END OF THE SFC FRONT IS STARTING TO HANG UP NOW SO WE MAY
STILL SEE SOME SVR WX IN THE SE CWFA THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM. ALSO NOW
BECOMING A BIGGER CONCERN IS FLASH FLOODING AS STORM MOVEMENT ALONG
I-94 HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY.

OTHERWISE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS LOWERING TO
MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE 60S. PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR FRIDAY
WITH FRESH/BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS... ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE WARM.

HAVE INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
MODELS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND
INTERACTING WITH NEXT (RELATIVELY WEAK) TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN FAST
NW FLOW ALOFT.

STRONGER WAVE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NRN LWR MI AND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN THEIR DAY4 OUTLOOK SO THIS
WAVE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SVR WX.

&&

.LONG TERM...(204 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010)
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THE HEAT AND PCPN POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE IN
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM SUN MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY
AMPLIFY...AND BRING A GOOD SURGE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE AREA
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

A DECENT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF HEAT AND
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONTAL TIMING MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30S.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MON. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER
AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA AND THE FRONT TRIES TO PUSH
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING STORM CHCS BACK INTO THE AREA ON TUE. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO MEANDER NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH
WED...PROVIDING A CHC OF STORMS AT ANY TIME THROUGH WED. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 80S AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON THU. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA...AND ALLOW FOR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO BUILD IN. TEMPS LOOK TO WARM INTO THE 90S ALONG WITH
DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF STORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH...HOWEVER WE MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME CAPPED ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(148 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010)
MAIN CONCERN TO AVIATION INTERESTS IS THE LOOMING ROUND OF STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN BUILDING TODAY...AND A LINE OF
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM JUST EAST OF
SOUTH HAVEN TO BIG RAPIDS. WE EXPECT THIS LINE TO FILL IN WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR...AND IMPACT ALL OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KMKG. WE HAVE
ALLOWED FOR A ONE TO TWO HOUR TEMPO PERIOD FOR THE BEST THREAT OF
STORMS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS FROM THE WNW WILL BE THE BIGGEST
HAZARD IN ADDITION TO THE NORMAL STORM HAZARDS.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THAT. DRIER
AIR AND WINDS REMAINING UP TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP FOG POTENTIAL LOW FOR
TONIGHT.

.MARINE...(500 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010)
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY BE REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL KEEP WAVES JUST
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IF THE AIR ALOFT WAS COLDER
THEN IT WOULD BE AN EASY DECISION... BUT WE ARE ALREADY WARM
ADVECTING AT 4000 FT AFTER 12Z FRIDAY WHICH OUGHT TO LIMIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(500 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010)
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS BECOMING A CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALHOUN... INGHAM... AND JACKSON COUNTIES SINCE
THE FRONT IS SLOWING DOWN. RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM. THE JACKSON RIVER GAGE WILL LIKELY
RESPOND RATHER QUICKLY AND COULD EXCEED FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI....NONE.
LM....NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     MEADE
SHORT TERM:   MEADE
LONG TERM:    NJJ
AVIATION:     NJJ
MARINE:       MEADE
HYDROLOGY:    MEADE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
105 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-161100-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
105 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTH AND EAST OF A MUSKEGON TO CADILLAC LINE. THE MAIN
THREATS ARE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND TORRENTIAL
RAIN WITH LOCALIZED ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. CELL
MOVEMENT WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 40 MPH.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PUSH TOWARD 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131.

LMZ844>849-161100-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
105 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT BEING SOUTH OF WHITEHALL. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A VERY HUMID AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND HAZE ON LAKE
MICHIGAN WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW A MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM.

DUKE/MEADE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
401 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TSTM WND GST     BATTLE CREEK            42.32N 85.19W
07/15/2010  M62 MPH          CALHOUN            MI   ASOS

&&

MKALEMBK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
426 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

MIZ059-067-152130-
CLINTON-INGHAM-
426 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LANSING...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM
EDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

LAT...LON 4260 8460 4272 8460 4280 8436 4278 8436
      4278 8415 4265 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 254DEG 24KT 4269 8449

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
429 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E BATTLE CREEK        42.32N 85.14W
07/15/2010  E60 MPH          CALHOUN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS OF NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
432 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE SLEEPY HOLLOW STAT 42.96N 84.39W
07/15/2010                   CLINTON            MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            911 DISPATCH REPORTS 20 INCH TREE BLOCKING NORTHBOUND
            LANE NEAR HOLLISTER AND TAFT ROADS.

&&

CSCHOLTEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
434 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     FLOOD            BATTLE CREEK            42.32N 85.19W
07/15/2010                   CALHOUN            MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            BATTLE CREEK EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER REPORTS STREET
            FLOODING IN BATTLE CREEK.

&&

MKALEMBK

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