Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION AND SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...(335 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010)
AN ACTIVE WEEK IS EXPECTED AS WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBILITIES DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(1155 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010)
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ONTO THE LAKE SHORE AREA OF
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY 1230 AM THIS TUESDAY MORNING. THE RUC
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM WITH THE
AREA BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 1800 J/KG OF
CAPE WITH CIN UNDER 20 J/KG AS THE STORM MOVE THROUGH. STORMS SHOULD
MOVE EAST AROUND 35 MPH AND EXIT THE LANSING AREA BY 4 OR 5 AM.
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CAPE BETWEEN THE -10 AND -30
ISOTHERM SO THERE IS THE THREAT OF HAIL. SINCE THE STORMS ARE
ELEVATED... RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS 50 MB
OFF THE GROUND WIND WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION EXITING THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING... AND DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTN. IF THINGS DO NOT
COME TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT... THIS WILL BE THE NEXT BEST WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(335 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010)
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY
AND PLEASANT WX. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WE HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF A SMALL CHANCE FOR TSTORMS
BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FCST ON SUNDAY WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL IN OUR AREA. DRY WX WILL RETURN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(1155 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010)
THE STORMS ARE NOW MOVING ON SHORE INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AS
EXPECTED THE LOW LEVEL JET IS STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENING
OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL CROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY
2 AM AND THE EASTERN ONES BY 4 AM.  I STILL EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS
AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND
CLEARS THE SKIES. THERE IS ENOUGH MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE TO HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OF TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...(335 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010)
OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR SYNOPTIC WINDS NOT NEEDED ATTM. HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LOW LEVEL JET EVOLUTION/BEHAVIOR...
WHICH COULD KICK THINGS UP ON THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND MORE LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

IF A STRONG MCS/LARGE BOW ECHO WERE TO ROLL ACROSS THE LAKE... THEN
SEICHE COULD BE A CONCERN. ALSO A VERY REMOTE POSSIBILITY IS WAKE
LOW FORMATION BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS...WHICH ARE NOT ALL THAT
UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR. THAT COULD CREATE ODD/STRONG WIND
CHARACTERISTICS EVEN AFTER TSTMS EXIT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(335 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010)
LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 2 INCHES MEANS THAT ANY OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS...SOME
STREAMS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH AND ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING.

STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ATTM TO POST ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR
TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE IF ACTIVITY CONGEALS TO OUR SOUTH THIS
EVENING THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INTERCEPTED AND NOT GET UP
HERE. AFTER TONIGHT... TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A WATCH AS WELL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI....NONE.
LM....NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:     93
SHORT TERM:   MEADE WDM
LONG TERM:    LAURENS
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       MEADE
HYDROLOGY:    MEADE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1058 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-221100-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1058 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE... WILL MOVE
INTO THE LAKE SHORE AREA OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AROUND 35 MPH AND
REACHING THE LANSING AREA BY 4 AM. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  ANY STRONGER STORM
COULD CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IF THE STORMS PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONGER WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.   HEAVIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND IF
THE STORMS PERSIST OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREA...EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY.

LMZ844>849-221100-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1158 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF EASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN BY 1230 AM.  SOME MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE MAIN STORM MOTION WILL BE EAST AT AROUND 35
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY.

MJS/MEADE/WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1253 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 W HOLLAND             42.78N 86.21W
06/22/2010  M51 MPH          OTTAWA             MI   PUBLIC

            WIND MEASURED AT HOLLAND SPYGLASS CONDOS.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1256 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     TSTM WND GST     MUSKEGON                43.22N 86.25W
06/22/2010  E50 MPH          MUSKEGON           MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED WIND GUST ALONG WITH BB SIZE HAIL AT MUSKEGON
            STATE PARK.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
116 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GRAND RAPIDS            42.96N 85.67W
06/22/2010                   KENT               MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED AT KENT COUNTY DISPATCH CENTER.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
122 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GRAND HAVEN             43.06N 86.22W
06/22/2010  M3.25 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNTOWN GRAND HAVEN. STREET FLOODED CURB TO CURB.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
123 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 AM     TSTM WND GST     GRAND HAVEN             43.06N 86.22W
06/22/2010  M65 MPH          OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED IN DOWNTOWN GRAND HAVEN.

&&

MKALEMBK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>