Small Craft Advisory 34, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
541 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.UPDATE...SCENARIO 2 DESCRIBED BELOW IS PLAYING OUT. JUST UPDATED
PRODUCTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH FOR MOST OF THE SW PART OF
THE FCST AREA. SINCE STORMS WILL BE ARRIVING EARLIER...UPDATED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO START IMMEDIATELY OVER E-C WI. EVEN IF CURRENT LINE
ISN/T SVR BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE FAR E...IT COULD DROP SOME
HEAVY RAINS.

SKOWRONSKI
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010...

SYNOPSIS...HUMID WITH THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL EARLY...THEN MUCH LESS HUMID WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

ENERGY FM OLD WEST COAST TROF HEADING TOWARD THE AREA...AND COMBINED
WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY SWINGING ARND RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF AK...IT
WL ESTABLISH BROAD STG LNGWV TROF OVER S-C CANADA AND THE N-C
CONUS. ONCE IN PLACE...TROF WL DOMINATE THE WX FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST PERIOD...THOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS FLOW COULD GO BACK TO ZONAL
AGAIN AFTER THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD HEAVY...AND POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE...RAINFALL EARLY
AS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR GETS DISPLACED OFF TO THE SE. PCPN CHCS
AFTER THAT WL DEPEND ON SHRTWVS ROTG THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPR
TROF...SO AMNTS WOULD BE LIGHTER AND COVERAGE MORE SCT. TEMPS AND
HUMIDITIES WL START OUT WAY ABV NORMAL...THEN TEMPS WL FALL BACK
TO NR NORMAL AS MUCH DRIER AIR CANADIAN AIR SETTLES INTO THE RGN.

SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/SAT. FOCUS OF FCST OBVIOUSLY ON FLOODING AND
SVR WX POTENTIAL. GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED ON THE MODELS WAS FOR
CONVECTION W OF THE AREA TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT ACRS THE N THIS
MORNING. THAT WOULD LEAVE THE SRN/SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA
GENERALLY UNTOUCHED...WITH SIG DESTABILIZATION BY AFTN. THEN
APPROACH OF ENERGY FM OLD WEST COAST TROF WOULD HELP INITIATE NEW
STORMS...WHICH WOULD EVOLVE INTO DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING MCS AS THEY
SURGE E OR ESE ACRS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN/EVENING. THE PROBLEM
WITH THAT SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS IN SRN MN ARE CURRENTLY
STRENGTHENING AND HEADING MORE ELY. THAT WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST A
DIFFERENT SCENARIO. WITH WK/DIFFUSE BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACRS THE
FCST AREA...THE MN STORMS COULD JUST ROLL EWD. THEY WOULD ARRIVE
EARLIER...BUT STILL COULD BE SVR. AFTER THEY EXIT...IT/S TOTALLY
UNCLEAR HOW MUCH RECOVERY WOULD OCCUR. SHOULD STILL GET MORE
STORMS THIS AFTN/TNGT AS FORCING WL BE STG WITH MAIN SHRTWV CROSSING
THE AREA...BUT SVR RISK MUCH MORE QUESTIONABLE.

ATM SEEMS TO BE RUNNING FASTER THAN THE MODELS...SO ATTM I/M LEANING
TOWARD THE SECOND SCENARIO...BUT AM PREPARED TO MAKE ISSUANCE
TIME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR/STLT. IN EITHER CASE...EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. AND GIVEN RECENT RAINFALLS AND SATURATED
SOILS...WL POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NE. PLAN
TO START IT RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING IN THE W...BUT HOLD OFF ON THE
SERN PART OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL AFTN.

WITH THE WAY THINGS ARE RUNNING FAST...THINK THE SIG RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TNGT. BUT JUST TO KEEP THINGS
SIMPLE...AND SINCE THERE IS SOME DOUBT ABOUT THAT...JUST WENT WITH
12 HR POP GRID FOR TNGT.

MAIN FRONT WL STILL BE W OF THE AREA SAT...SO HUMIDITIES WL STILL BE
HIGH. BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WL BE LIMITED...AND ATM
SHOULD BE TOTALLY WORKED OVER. WL CARRY CHC OF LINGERING SHRA IN
THE MORNING...THEN JUST A CHC OF TSRA IN THE AFTN IN CASE
SOMETHING POPS ALONG THE FRONT. VERY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED
AGAIN...ESP OVER E-C WI. WLY WINDS SHOULD BRING TEMPS NR 90 RIGHT
UP TO THE LAKESHORE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THRU NEXT THURSDAY. FAIRLY SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 60 KNOT JET AT 500MB SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
MOTION TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM AN OTHERWISE
DRYING ATMOSPHERE.

THEN WE GET THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IN MORE THAN A
MONTH...WITH CYCLONIC NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN CHANGE ISN/T FORECAST TO LAST
TOO LONG...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A RETURN TO NEARLY ZONAL
UPPER FLOW BY NEXT FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SHOULD FALL TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SOME
JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND AGAIN
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...WL NEED TO CARRY AT LEAST 1 PERIOD TO TSRA AT ALL TAF
SITES. WL MAKE ISSUANCE TIME DECISION ON TIMING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WIZ020-021-031-
037>040-045-048>050-074.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ005-010-018-019-
030-035-036.

&&

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