Small Craft Advisory 22, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
413 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD PCPN CHANCES THROUGH PERIOD AND WIND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STACKED UPPER LOW TO EXIT THE HIGH PLAINS
PUSHING IN TO THE LOWER LAKES BY TONIGHT. INITIAL BAND OF PCPN
PROVIDED LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES AS IT LIFTED NORTH INTO CWA.
TREND MODELED WELL BY NAM...AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/850 WARM
FRONT WEAKENED BY 06Z AS MOVED INTO NE WI. THOUGH DID HELP TO
SATURATE ATMOSPHERE. NEXT AREA PCPN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTH AROUND
LOW OVER IL/IA. AGAIN NAM/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING THIS FEATURE
WELL...WITH PCPN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CWA AROUND 12Z. AFTER THIS
MORNING...PCPN TRENDS MORE MUDDLED AS MUCH OF DYNAMICS SOUTH AND
EAST OF AREA. HAVE KEPT HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS
DEFORMATION ZONE MAY JUST BRUSH AREA AS LOW PULLS OUT. DRY AIR ON
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO WORK AGAINST PCPN LATER SAT INTO
SUN. HAVE BACKED DOWN ON CLOUDS NORTH AND TRENDED WARMER ON SUN THERE.

DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH IL INTO NORTHERN IN
TO LEAD TO STRONG NE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUN...WITH WINDS
OVER BAY AND FOX VALLEY ENHANCED BY FUNNELING EFFECTS. QUESTION ON
WHEN WINDS WILL PICK UP AS LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LINE UP TO THE
NORTHEAST UNTIL EARLY SUN MORN. WILL TREND TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NGT THRU NXT FRI. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO START THE WORK WEEK AS THE LRG CYCLONE HEADS TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND AND THE NXT SHRTWV TROF TO DIVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY. AS A NEW STRONGER SYSTEM HITS THE WRN
CONUS AT MID-WEEK...A DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG WL MOV INTO THE CNTRL
U.S. AND CONT THE QUIET WEATHER FOR NE WI. NXT CHC FOR PCPN DOES
NOT ARRIVE TIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN THIS NXT SYSTEM PUSHES INTO
THE PLAINS AND A WRMFNT/CDFNT COMBINATION APPROACHES WI. TEMPS WL
WARM THRU THE WEEK...ESP BY NXT THU AND FRI.

VERTICALLY STACKED STORM TO SLOWLY MOV ACROSS OHIO SUNDAY NGT WITH
FORCING/LIFT PULLING SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA. DRIER AIR
FILTERING SOUTH FROM SRN ONTARIO WL BEGIN TO BREAK UP THE CLDS OVR
THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING AND THEN CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI OVRNGT.
EXPECT THE WNDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH AS THE STORM PULLS FARTHER
AWAY AND THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. NEVERTHELESS...LAKESIDE AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE NORTH WNDS OF 15 MPH THRU THE NGT. MIN TEMPS ARE
FCST TO SETTLE INTO THE 30S NORTH AND WEST...BUT REMAIN IN THE 40S
IN THE EAST WITH A BIT MORE WND.

WEAK HI PRES TO RESIDE OVR THE WRN GREAT LKS ON MON WHILE THE NXT
SHRTWV TROF DROPS SE THRU THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST.
ONLY AFFECT WE WL SEE FROM THIS FEATURE COULD BE SOME HI CLDS
APPROACHING NE WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLDY SKIES...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR 50S
NEAR LK MI TO THE LWR 60S OVR PARTS OF CNTRL WI.

THIS SHRTWV TROF CONTS TO DIVE SE AND REACHES THE MID-MS VALLEY BY
MON NGT (THE NAM APRS TO BE TOO SLOW HERE). THIS MOVEMENT WOULD BE
TOO FAR TO OUR SW TO BRING ANY PCPN TO NE WI SO CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLR TO PARTLY CLDY SKIES. COOLEST TEMPS WL
BE FOUND NEAR THE MI BORDER WHERE DRIER AIR AND LESS WND SHOULD
ALLOW READINGS TO FALL TO AROUND 30 DEGS. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WL
SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEG RANGE. BY TUE...THE NXT MAJOR
SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A STG SHRTWV TROF WL BE IMPACTING THE WEST
COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM UPR RDG DEVELOPING OVR THE ROCKIES. MEAN
FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH OVR THE WRN GREAT
LKS...THEREBY KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL (COOLER AGAIN NEAR LK
MI).

AS THIS STG SHRTWV TROF DRIVES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES ON WED...THE
UPR RDG WL GET SHOVED FARTHER EAST AS WELL AND REACH THE MIDWEST
BY 00Z THU. WNDS ARE FCST TO VEER MORE S-SE BY WED AS THE SFC HI
SHIFTS EAST AND THE UPR RDG APPROACHES. WEAK WAA WL BE THE RESULT
AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIFT TEMPS INTO THE 60S EXCEPT THE 50S NEAR
THE LAKE. FCST GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING BY THU AS THE MDLS
DISAGREE WITH THE EVENTUAL HANDLING OF THE SHRTWV TROF. THE GFS
PREFERS TO DIG A 130 KT JET TOWARD THE BASE OF THE TROF...THUS
SHARPENING THE UPR TROF OVR THE ROCKIES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO NOT DIG THIS JET AND INSTEAD JUST MOV THE
JET ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE UPR TROF. THIS LATTER SOLN ALLOWS
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TO PROGRESS FASTER TO THE EAST THAN THE GFS AND
COULD BRING PCPN TO NE WI AS EARLY AS THU MORNING. SINCE THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL OVR THE PACIFIC WHERE DATA IS SPARSE...EXPECT THE
MDLS TO REMAIN IN CONFLICT FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE
WL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS TO THE FCST BEYOND WED NGT. TEMPS WL BEGIN TO
WARM AHD OF THIS ADVANCING SYSTEM AS 8H TEMPS RISE INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS. IF THE CLDS STAY AWAY LONG ENUF...THERE COULD BE A FEW 70S
ACROSS NE WI.
&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF PCPN WILL LIFT NORTH INTO GRB...ATW...ISW
BY 12Z...PUSHING NORTH THROUGH REST OF AREA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR
CIGS TO DROP INTO LOW VFR/MVFR RANGE FOR THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR AFTERNOON. STRONG GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
STRONG NE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOX VALLEY
WERE GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE.
&&

.MARINE...ISSUED SMALL CRAFT WITH THIS ISSUANCE WITH EXPECTED
STRONG NORTHEAST GRADIENT. EXPECT GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE WITH
FUNNELING EFFECTS DOWN BAY AND OFF LAKE MI SHORE DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE. WILL HOLD OFF ON GALE AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW/TRACK.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TE/KALLAS

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