Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Green Bay, WI

465 
WWUS53 KGRB 150512
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1212 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

WIC037-041-085-150600-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-100815T0600Z/
FOREST WI-FLORENCE WI-ONEIDA WI-
1212 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
ONEIDA...FLORENCE AND NORTHERN FOREST COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1208 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES
NORTHEAST OF RHINELANDER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TIPLER AROUND 1240 AM CDT.
  FLORENCE AROUND 1255 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE LONG
LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4600 8848 4600 8836 4598 8834 4597 8828
      4581 8813 4557 8907 4561 8923 4582 8923
      4602 8866 4600 8862 4602 8860 4602 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 242DEG 48KT 4574 8906
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

SKOWRONSKI

887 
WWUS53 KGRB 150529
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

WIC085-150538-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-100815T0600Z/
ONEIDA WI-
1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ONEIDA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4575 8897 4587 8898 4602 8851 4600 8848
      4600 8836 4598 8834 4597 8828 4581 8813
      4565 8876
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 242DEG 48KT 4584 8879

$$

WIC037-041-150600-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-100815T0600Z/
FOREST WI-FLORENCE WI-
1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORENCE AND
NORTHERN FOREST COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1226 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TIPLER...OR 19 MILES NORTH 
OF CRANDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THE STORM HAD WEAKENED A 
BIT...BUT STILL APPEARED CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF 
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TIPLER AROUND 1240 AM CDT.
  FLORENCE AROUND 1255 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE LONG
LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4575 8897 4587 8898 4602 8851 4600 8848
      4600 8836 4598 8834 4597 8828 4581 8813
      4565 8876
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 242DEG 48KT 4584 8879
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

SKOWRONSKI

150 
WWUS53 KGRB 150542
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1242 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

WIC037-041-150552-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-100815T0600Z/
FOREST WI-FLORENCE WI-
1242 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FLORENCE AND NORTHERN FOREST
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4575 8897 4587 8898 4602 8851 4600 8848
      4600 8836 4598 8834 4597 8828 4581 8813
      4565 8876
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 242DEG 48KT 4592 8855

$$

SKOWRONSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
256 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG THIS MORNING INHIBITED HEATING DURING THE
MORNING BUT A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE STATE HELPED TO CLEAR
THOSE CLOUDS FROM THE AREA. THE CLOUDS SLOWED DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND CAUSED SOME CU TO DEVELOPMENT...BUT THERE HAS
BEEN ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW SB CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB
ABOVE 1500 J/KG ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. SB CIN SEEM TO
BE NONEXISTENT...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...THEN
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FARTHER BEHIND IT. CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY WAS OCCURRING WITH DEW POINTS MUCH LOWER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE IN WISCONSIN. THOSE STORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
MOST OF WISCONSIN DURING THE NIGHT. HAVE CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 06Z
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SINCE LITTLE OR NO QFP WAS SHOWING UP ON
THE MODELS THERE. WENT WITH THE CONSENSUS ON SUNDAY...DRY. BUT AM A
LITTLE BIT CONCERNED THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WAS NOT FORECAST TO BE
EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THRU NEXT SATURDAY...

THOUGHTS CHANGING WITH EACH MODEL RUN ON HOW LONG COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL BE WITH US...BEFORE PATTERN CHANGES BACK TO ZONAL
PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN OVER THE PAST SUMMER.

CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF EASTERN TROF WILL BRING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WINDS TO PICK UP LATE SUN
BEHIND SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TUE WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CU AS MOISTURE/DYNAMICS STAY
NORTH OF STATE. CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW AFTER TUE AS MODELS SHOW
SHIFT TO ZONAL FLOW WITH UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO HUDSON BAY.
SOME CONSISTENCY IN MODELS SHOWING SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FLOW
LATER WED INTO THU...GIVING US NEXT SHOT AT PCPN. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND WITH 5H HEIGHTS RISING TO 582 AS
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BUMPED TEMPS UP LATER
PERIODS WITH MORE INCREASES LIKELY LATER. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOWING
850 TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE STATE
TO DIE OFF BEFORE REACHING THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS. BUT
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE SITUATION TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHES OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS.
&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS
SHORT WAVE/100KT JET SHIFTS EAST THROUGH NORTHERN WI. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MG/TE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
309 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-152015-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
309 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF
THE FOX VALLEY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MID-WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
ABLE TO MAKE A REASONABLE ASSESSMENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...IF ANY...THAT WILL BE POSED BY THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-152015-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
309 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MID-WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
ABLE TO MAKE A REASONABLE ASSESSMENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...IF ANY...THAT WILL BE POSED BY THE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
936 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

WIZ005-010-018-019-030-031-035>037-150330-
LANGLADE-LINCOLN-MARATHON-ONEIDA-PORTAGE-SHAWANO-VILAS-WAUPACA-WOOD-
936 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS APPROACHING NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN...

AT 930 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAC DU FLAMBEAU TO NEAR
MEDFORD. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...
  TOMAHAWK...LAKE TOMAHAWK AND WILLOW RESERVOIR.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

EB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018-019-150545-
FLORENCE-FOREST-LANGLADE-LINCOLN-NORTHERN MARINETTE
COUNTY-ONEIDA-VILAS-
1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL WISCOSNIN...

AT 1150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RHINELANDER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TIPLER BY 1230 AM CDT...

THE STORM WAS PART OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WERE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SKOWRONSKI