Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2010

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Green Bay, WI

July 20, 2010Lincoln County, Marathon County, Wisconsin

NWS Green Bay, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 20, 2010, 3:30 PM CDT for Lincoln County, Marathon County, Wisconsin. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 20, 2010, 3:30 PM CDT (20:30 UTC)
Expired: Jul 20, 2010, 4:30 PM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Green Bay, WI
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Lincoln County, WI, Marathon County, WI

The radar

The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 20, 3:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 879 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 51 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 20, 2:47 PM CDT, 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 2:47 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
247 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2010

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN OF
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH IMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CONTINUES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES SHRTWVS
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAS ENTERING WI FM MN.
INITIAL STORMS IN THAT AREA BEING HELD BACK BY CLDS EARLIER IN THE
DAY...BUT SOME ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED
RECENTLY. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEARING DRY ADIABATIC SO THERE WILL BE A WIND THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS COMING IN FM THE W. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING SWD FROM UPPER MICHIGAN. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE FAR NE. THE 12Z RAOB AT GRB HAD A FZG
LEVEL AROUND 13000 FEET...BUT THAT SHOULD BE LOWERING AS MID-LVL
JET MVS IN FM THE W. WITH SBCAPE VALUES AT AROUND 1000 J/KG AND
MODERATE SHEAR WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE...SVR HAIL WL ALSO BE
A THREAT WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.

EXPECT EVENING STORMS TO END OR AT LEAST DIMINISH. THEN NEXT
SHRTWV WL ARRIVE LATE TNGT. THAT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO
THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE...SO KEPT CHC GOING THAT AREA. LOOKS
LIKE FORCING FM THAT FEATURE WL BE CONFINED TO THE N...SO KEPT
C/E-C WI DRY.

ONCE THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. WENT A LITTLE BIT LOWER ON MAX
TEMPS TOMORROW DUE TO THE FINAL SHORTWAVE NOT CLEARING UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. ALSO LOWERED DEW POINTS DUE TO MIXING OUT
BEHIND THE WAVE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH PLENTY OF FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVES WILL CONTINUE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. TIMING OF
SHORT WAVES REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN.

THERE SEEMS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE POPS RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTH AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACH WISCONSIN.
EXPECT ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT STARTING ON THURSDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT GETS DRAGGED THROUGH WISCONSIN AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE STATE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE GRIDS ON
SATURDAY. HAD CONSIDERED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE THE SHORT WAVE AXIS
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY...BUT
SLIGHT CHANCE FITS BETTER WITH SURROUNDING GRIDS. HAVE DRY WEATHER
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING. HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION. NOT REALLY MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH IT SO MAYBE COULD
HAVE LEFT IT OUT BUT MODELS INDICATED QPF...SO THERE IT IS. LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN THE LAST FEW PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST...AND SURROUNDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
&&

.AVIATION...SKIES MAY CLR LATE TNGT. BUT WINDS...ESP AT THE TOP OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN YDA....SO FG POTENTIAL
IS LOWER. JUST WENT WITH MVFR FG FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MARQUIS/JS/MG

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 11:37 AM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 3:01 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 20, 3:03 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Green Bay, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 7:13 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		65 min
Jul 19, 7:14 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GRB	Brown, Calumet, Kewaunee, Manitowoc, Oconto, Shawano and 1 more	3 hr
Jul 20, 4:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Marathon	56 min
Jul 20, 5:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Marathon, Shawano, Waupaca	60 min
Jul 20, 5:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	GRB	Shawano	29 min
Jul 20, 5:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Brown, Oconto, Outagamie, Shawano, Waupaca	51 min
Jul 20, 5:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Portage, Waupaca	56 min
Jul 20, 6:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Outagamie, Waupaca, Winnebago	47 min
Jul 20, 6:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Brown, Outagamie	17 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2010 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.