Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
331 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. STORMS APPROACHING GREEN BAY
HAVE WEAKENED FOR THE MOMENT. ANOTHER LINE OF SEVERE
WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. A THIRD LINE OF
SEVERE STORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT. FOR THIS EVENING...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL RATES IN THE HEAVIER STORMS
WERE IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR. PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO END OR DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
STILL BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
AT MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS
ARE PCPN CHCS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND AGAIN TOWARD MIDWEEK.

ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVG THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH WI SAT NGT/SUN...
ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT OF TSTMS...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF SVR
WX. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE RGN FOR MON/TUES...WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVG INTO THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. DEVELOPING WAA IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHC OF TSTMS TUES NGT/WEDS...
ESP OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
THEN ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE STATE ON THURSDAY. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON WESTERLY WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ECKBERG/KIECKBUSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
333 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-152045-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
333 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME URBAN
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-152045-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
333 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG WILL ALSO CAUSE NAVIGATION PROBLEMS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.
AREAS OF FOG WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING THAT MAY POSE
NAVIGATION PROBLEMS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

ECKBERG/KIECKBUSCH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
409 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

WIZ005-010-011-018-030-035-142200-
FOREST-LINCOLN-MARATHON-ONEIDA-VILAS-WOOD-
409 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HEADED INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

AT 403 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 28 MILES NORTHWEST
OF EAGLE RIVER TO 79 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAUSAU...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE.

SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AND ADDITIONAL VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TRIPOLI...            WOODRUFF...           WILLOW RESERVOIR...
  MINOCQUA...           ARBOR VITAE...        SPIRIT FALLS...
  SAYNER...             HAZELHURST...         STAR LAKE...
  LAKE TOMAHAWK...      COLBY...              ST GERMAIN...
  MILAN...              LAND O LAKES...       HARSHAW...

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE
STORMS SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

SKOWRONSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
411 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E WAUSAU              44.96N 89.53W
07/14/2010                   MARATHON           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN EAST OF CITY. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

SAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
412 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N TOMAHAWK            45.50N 89.73W
07/14/2010                   LINCOLN            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE LIMB FELL ON POWER LINE NEAR COUNTY ROAD A.

1248 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKE TOMAHAWK           45.81N 89.59W
07/14/2010                   ONEIDA             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN CITY. DELAYED REPORT.

1252 PM     TSTM WND GST     TOMAHAWK                45.46N 89.73W
07/14/2010  E45.00 MPH       LINCOLN            WI   STORM CHASER

            WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH ON WEST SIDE OF CITY.

0121 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW MERRILL            45.23N 89.75W
07/14/2010  M42.00 MPH       LINCOLN            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH OF RAIN IN LAST 20 MINUTES. COUNCIL GROUNDS STATE
            PARK.

0126 PM     TSTM WND GST     COLBY                   44.91N 90.30W
07/14/2010  M41.00 MPH       MARATHON           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAIN...VSBY DOWN TO 200 FT.

0146 PM     HEAVY RAIN       COLBY                   44.91N 90.30W
07/14/2010  M1.60 INCH       MARATHON           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LAST 45 MINUTES.

0147 PM     HEAVY RAIN       8 W MERRILL             45.18N 89.84W
07/14/2010  M2.24 INCH       LINCOLN            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LAST HOUR.

0147 PM     TSTM WND GST     WAUSAU                  44.96N 89.63W
07/14/2010  E50.00 MPH       MARATHON           WI   PUBLIC

0147 PM     TSTM WND GST     WAUSAU                  44.96N 89.63W
07/14/2010  M46.00 MPH       MARATHON           WI   ASOS

0147 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOSINEE                 44.78N 89.69W
07/14/2010  M43.00 MPH       MARATHON           WI   AWOS

0150 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MERRILL                 45.18N 89.68W
07/14/2010  M1.72 INCH       LINCOLN            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING IN THE CITY.

0159 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WAUSAU                  44.96N 89.63W
07/14/2010  M1.21 INCH       MARATHON           WI   ASOS

            LAST HOUR.

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E WAUSAU              44.96N 89.53W
07/14/2010                   MARATHON           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN EAST OF CITY. DELAYED REPORT.

0205 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MERRILL                 45.18N 89.68W
07/14/2010  M1.93 INCH       LINCOLN            WI   AWOS

            LAST HOUR.

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WITTENBERG              44.81N 89.15W
07/14/2010                   SHAWANO            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN THE CITY.

0223 PM     TSTM WND GST     ANTIGO                  45.15N 89.15W
07/14/2010  M47.00 MPH       LANGLADE           WI   AWOS

0227 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORGAN                  44.88N 88.81W
07/14/2010                   SHAWANO            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN. STOCKBRIDGE INDIAN RESERVATION.

0234 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S MARION              44.62N 88.88W
07/14/2010                   WAUPACA            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 110. CORN FIELD FLATTEN. DEBRIS IN ROAD.

0236 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEOPIT                  44.98N 88.81W
07/14/2010                   MENOMINEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN NEAR COUNTY TRUNK M.

0250 PM     TSTM WND GST     SHAWANO                 44.78N 88.59W
07/14/2010  E55.00 MPH       SHAWANO            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH

0312 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE NEW LONDON         44.41N 88.71W
07/14/2010                   OUTAGAMIE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORN FIELD FLATTEN WITH WIND GUSTING TO 52 MPH.

0335 PM     TSTM WND GST     APPLETON                44.26N 88.40W
07/14/2010  M43.00 MPH       OUTAGAMIE          WI   AWOS

&&

SAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
423 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HEAVY RAIN       APPLETON                44.26N 88.40W
07/14/2010  U0.00 INCH       OUTAGAMIE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER FLOWING ON THE ROAD AT RICHMOND AND JJ.

&&

SAC