Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
239 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT/SATURDAY. STORMS ORGANIZED ALONG AND NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING TOWARD THE AREA LATE TODAY. SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON NOSE OF H8 MOISTURE WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INCREASING IN THE SLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. ONGOING
SEVERE AND TOR WATCHES ISSUED EARLIER AND MAINLY ISSUED WITH
RESPECT TO SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...UPPER JET OVER THE REGION AND
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION.  DID ADD A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
FORECAST LATER TONIGHT OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS. EXPECT THE PCPN TO
BE SCOURED OUT BY SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY OR WINDY DAY.
EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF PCPN
CHCS DURING THIS PERIOD. FIRST IS DURING THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
INCREASING BAROCLINIC ZONE. HOWEVER OF MORE IMPORTANCE IS THE
UPPER COUPLET JET REGION SO WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
NAM AND GFS MORE HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PERIOD..MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH SLIDING ANOTHER COOL FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING IS
OF ISSUE BUT APPEARS WEAK.

BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A MORE SIG COOL FRONT SLIDING OVER THE AREA
AROUND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION. ADDED
TSRA TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MENTIONED DYNAMICS. GLANCE AT THE
ECMWF SLOWS THIS FRONT DOWN AND ANTICIPATE LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE THIS WEEKEND.

FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. SOME DIFFERENCE WITH THE
MDM RANGE PROGS WITH ANOTHER S/W PASSING OVER LATE NEXT WEEK. THE
THE 12Z ECMWF CONSIDERABLY BACKED OFF FROM THE MORE WET 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDEPSPREAD CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RE/TH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
139 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-011845-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
139 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. A TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 40 MPH AT A FEW LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-011845-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
139 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...FOR STRONG SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS WILL
POSE A THREAT TO BOATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL CREATE PROLONGED
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

ECKBERG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
238 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

WIZ005-010-018-030-035-036-302045-
VILAS-ONEIDA-LINCOLN-MARATHON-WOOD-PORTAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...TOMAHAWK...
WAUSAU...WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT
238 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

AT 236 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
PHILLIPS TO 25 MILES WEST OF MARSHFIELD...TO 20 MILES EAST OF LA
CROSSE. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 60 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN LINCOLN...
WESTERN MARATHON AND WOOD COUNTIES BY 310 PM...AND THEN REACH
EASTERN LINCOLN...EASTERN MARATHON AND PORTAGE COUNTIES BETWEEN
340 PM AND 415 PM. SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH.
STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ON THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY DO BECOME SEVERE.

ECKBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
254 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

WIZ005-010-018-030-035-036-302100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-LINCOLN-MARATHON-WOOD-PORTAGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...TOMAHAWK...
WAUSAU...WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT
254 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010

AT 253 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
PARK FALLS TO 10 MILES WEST OF MARSHFIELD...TO RICHLAND CENTER IN
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 60 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
LINCOLN... WESTERN MARATHON AND WOOD COUNTIES BY 310 PM...AND THEN
REACH EASTERN LINCOLN...EASTERN MARATHON AND PORTAGE COUNTIES
BETWEEN 340 PM AND 415 PM. SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO AN INCH.
THE STRONGEST STORM WILL ENTER NORTHWEST LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST
ONEIDA COUNTY AROUND 315 PM. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS ON THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY DO BECOME SEVERE.

ECKBERG