River Flood Warning 7, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
247 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY/TONIGHT/FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH
THIS PERIOD IS THE LOCATION OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
WHILE THE MODELS HAVE A HANDLE ON THE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS...LOCATION
OF HEAVY RAIN HAS NOT QUITE BEEN SETTLED YET. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
FORECAST THE HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER MN AND THEN LIFT INTO
NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. NOT SURPRISINGLY THE CONVECTION
OVER SE MN AND WESTERN WI HAS BEEN HOLDING THE FRONT UP FOR THE
MORNING HOURS AT LEAST AND AT 08Z EXTENDED FROM THE MN/IA BORDER
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE HEAVY RAINS FROM
AREAS WEST WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. HAVE ALREADY EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO CENTRAL WI
EARLIER TONIGHT WITH THIS TREND...AND WILL EXPAND INTO WAUPACA
SHAWANO...MENOMINEE AND SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTIES FOR THE TODAY
PORTION ONLY. HEAVY BAND OF RAIN FROM SE MN INTO WC WI APPEARS TO
BE ORIENTATING IN A SW TO NE DIRECTION AND AT THIS TIME WILL BE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSHARA COUNTY TO GRB. H8 BOUNDARY LIFTING
NORTH AND WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS NEXT FEW
HOURS FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THIS HEADLINE.

MODEL PROGS CONSISTENT WITH LIFTING THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS INTO MINNESOTA IN
RESPONSE TO DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WOULD TEND TO FOCUS THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT PRIOR TO
THE SHORT WAVE TROF WITH COLD FRONT TRACKING OVER LATER TONIGHT
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN. POTENTIAL OF SVR WEATHER WITH THIS
FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROF. VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH SRLY H8
WINDS WILL PRODUCE A VERY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE. WOULD EXPECT FOCUS
OF THE SVR WEATHER ALONG AND AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT LATE
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEEDLESS TO
SAY THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF WEATHER WILL BE QUITE BUSY WITH
CONTINUING AFFECTS OF FLOODING AFTER THAT.

WILL LINGER SOME MORNING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
OTHERWISE WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN
WISCONSIN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CONVECTION AND
WARM FRONT LOCATION.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLIFYING
FLOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.  THE TRENDS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS IS TO HAVE THE SHORTWAVE DIG FARTHER WEST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  UNCERTAINTY REALLY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE
12Z ECMWF AMPLIFIES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE
THE 18Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS THIS WAVE BEING MORE SUBDUED...AND
WEAK ENOUGH NOT TO INFLUENCE THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES.
WILL RELY ON THE 12Z ECMWF AND 21Z SREF THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...THEN
THE 12Z ECMWF THEREAFTER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE RAPIDLY
MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  WILL SEE
WINDY CONDITIONS THANKS TO NE WINDS SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES.  CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO
DEPART...BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC AND ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.  BY
THE TIME THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST...WILL ALREADY
SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE
DIGGING SHORTWAVE.  AS A RESULT...DONT SEE A GOOD FROST POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  THE FARTHER
WEST TRACK WILL KEEP THE LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA MOSTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THE
FORCING PULLS AWAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA IN ITS PLACE WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.  SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THIS TIME PERIOD AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE.  MODELS PORTRAY A WEAK FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  NOT ALOT OF AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS BY
THIS POINT...SO PREFER TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THE DETAILS
CAN GET SORTED OUT.
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE IFR CIGS WITH SCT IFR VSBYS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...INITIAL CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND THE AFFECTS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE FORECAST POINT
AT BABCOCK ON THE YELLOW RIVER IS UP FIRST. HEAVY RAIN AFFECTS ON
RIVERS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL NEED TO PLAY OUT TODAY FOR ANY
FLOOD WARNING HEADLINES FOR PERHAPS TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-019-
021-030-035-036-073.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ020-031-037-074.

&&

TDH/MPC

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