River Flood Warning 11, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
305 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY/TONIGHT/SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TRACKING OVER THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING FAST AND DIMINISHING SO LITTLE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL END THE FLOOD
WATCH OVER THE AREA AT ZONE ISSUANCE...HOWEVER FLOOD HEADLINES
WILL CONTINUE AS NEEDED ESPECIALLY FOR AREA RIVERS WHICH WILL SEE
THE RESULTS OF THE HEAVY RAIN THE LAST 36 HOURS. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAIL ON HYDRO CONCERNS.

WHILE THE RAIN HAS DIMINISHED...THE NEXT IMMEDIATE FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES. WINDS WERE ALREADY
GUSTY TO 40 MPH OVER EC WI WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE
70S. POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST DOOR
COUNTY LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
925 WINDS AT 50 KTS. SOME QUESTION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THESE
WINDS MIXING DOWN DUE ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
PREVENTING MIXING BUT WITH PRES RISE COUPLET AND SUBSIDENT REGION
OF THE UPPER JET...DECIDED TO GO FOR THE ADVISORY. WINDY CONDITION
WILL BE FELT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF FORECAST AREA BUT NOT SURE IF
ADVISORY LEVELS WILL BE APPROACHED.

QUIET WEATHER TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. NEXT SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW MAINLY DROPS WEST TO SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND LONGER OR NEVER EVEN CLEAR OUT.
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL PCPN MENTION OVER CENTRAL WI SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS OVER EC WI WILL BE FELT THIS MORNING...AT 2 AM MTW STILL
AT 75 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  WITH HPC SIDING WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE CUTOFF LOW...A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WOULD
CALL FOR SOME INFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...THOUGH NOT TO THE
DEGREE OF THE 12Z ECMWF.  INSTEAD OF TRYING TO BLEND THE 12Z ECMWF
AND 00Z GFS TONITE...WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO DO IN THIS
SCENARIO...WILL INSTEAD MAKE VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z NAM
AND 12Z ECMWF STILL PRODUCE LIGHT QPF OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SATURDAY EVENING...BUT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT REMOVED POPS AND IMPACT
APPEARS MINIMAL ENOUGH TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.  WILL SEE CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN HANGS AROUND SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS USHERING IN DRY AIR FROM ONTARIO THAT WILL PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAYBE
OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW AND OVER-LAKE
INSTABILITY COULD CREATE SOME LAKE CLOUDS.  NOT SURE HOW MUCH DRY
AIR WILL BE ALOFT...OR IF MORE MOIST AIR COULD GET RECYCLED FROM
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE AREA. SO WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC AND DESCRIBE
SKY CONDITIONS AS MOSTLY CLEAR.  HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S EACH NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD FROST LOOKS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER N-C WISCONSIN...AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL.  WILL LOWER TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE EAST
ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
REGION BY MIDDAY MONDAY.  WHETHER OR NOT SOME OF THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL SPLIT AND REINFORCE THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES IS HARD TO SAY.  NOT THAT IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.  WILL SEE THE SHORTWAVE BRING A
DECAYING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ONLY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND A LACK OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
KEEP THE DRY FORECAST INTACT.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY
MODERATING OVER THIS TIME UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  HIGHS IN THE
60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH ISOLD MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
TURN WEST WITH THE FROPA AND MAY GUST TO 40 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE OVER DOOR COUNTY.
&&

.MARINE...WILL UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING A FEW HOURS EARLIER THIS
MORNING AS SW WINDS NEAR GALE GUSTS NOW ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. THE BAY MAY LAG WITH REACHING CRITERIA THIS MORNING
UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT WEST AND BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WORKS OVER
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...WILL END THE FLOOD WATCH AT ZONE ISSUANCE THIS
MORNING. HYDRO CONCERNS ARE TURNING TO MORE OF A RIVER ISSUE AS
SEVERAL RIVERS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND FOR SOME
LOCATIONS...WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED WARNINGS
FOR MOST RIVERS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN INCLUDING THE WISCONSIN AND
YELLOW. MONITORING A FEW OTHER RIVERS IN LINCOLN FOR POSSIBLE
HEADLINES AS WELL AS THE EMBARRASS...LITTLE WOLF AND OCONTO FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN STILL IMPACTED
BY ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO DAMAGE ROADS OR PONDED WATER. WILL CHECK
WITH LOCAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING FOR A POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THOSE
HEADLINES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ022.

&&

TDH/MPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
346 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-242100-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
346 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER
WISCONSIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
VARIOUS FLOOD WATCHES...FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS OVER THE
STATE. THE PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

RIVERS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THURSDAY'S
RAINFALL.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY AS WELL AS ANY SEVERE WEATHER
REPORTS THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-242100-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
346 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

WINDS AND WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WINDS AND WAVES HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS OF NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY.

ECKBERG

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