Gale Warning 17, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
403 AM CST MON DEC 13 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE
ADJUSTMENTS TO HEADLINES TODAY.

LK-EFFECT CLOUDS WERE AFFECTING NC WI...AND ALONG THE LK MICH
SHORELINE EARLY THIS MORNING. OBSERVATIONS/RADAR INDICATED
LK-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY VILAS COUNTY AND NORTHERN
DOOR COUNTY. WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR VILAS
COUNTY THROUGH 2 PM...ALTHOUGH WILL PROBABLY ONLY MENTION
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY. MODELS
ALL AGREE THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS WSTRN LK SUP
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN LES.

WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DOOR COUNTY FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...AS GILLS ROCK IS STILL REPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND 55 KTS.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CONVERTED TO A WIND ADVISORY AFT 12Z.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN
LESS CONCERN FOR BLOWING SNOW. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE
WINTER WX ADVISORY AND CONVERTED SOME OF THE COUNTIES TO A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. DECIDED NOT TO CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
OVER THE FAR NORTH...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP BY LK-EFFECT
CLOUDS...AND OVER THE FAR NE...WHERE FCST WIND CHILLS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE TO CRITERIA. EVEN THE REMAINING WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS NOT A SLAM DUNK...AS ONLY MFI IS CURRENTLY AOB
CRITERIA. WILL COUNT ON TEMPS DROPPING OFF A BIT MORE TOWARD
SUNRISE...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPDATED ADVISORY AREA DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BLO ZERO...AT LEAST CLOSE TO
CRITERIA.

STAYED CLOSER TO THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUE NGT THRU NXT SUNDAY. INITIAL FOCUS TO BE ON VERY
COLD TEMPS THRU MID-WEEK...THEN ATTN TURNS TO A WEAK ISEN LIFT
EVENT AROUND THE THU TIME FRAME WITH LGT ACCUMULATIONS PSBL OVR
CNTRL WI. FCST GETS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN TOWARD NXT WEEKEND...BUT
NO BIG SNOWS EXPECTED.

SFC RDG AXIS HOLDS FIRM FROM SW ONTARIO SEWD THRU NE WI INTO
INDIANA TUE NGT. MDLS DO INDICATE A SHRTWV DIVING SE THRU THE
MIDWEST WITH WEAK ISEN LIFT ACROSS MN AND IA. SOME MID/HI CLDS
COULD SNEAK INTO CNTRL WI DURING THE NGT WHICH WOULD PLAY HAVOC
WITH MIN TEMPS. SINCE WNDS WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE...TEMPS COULD
HAVE A 10 DEG SWING BETWEEN NO CLDS VERSUS MOSTLY CLDY. HAVE
TRENDED FCST TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF GUID WHICH WOULDL BRING
SUB-ZERO MIN TEMPS TO ALL BUT AREAS NEAR THE BAY AND LK MI.

EVEN AS THE SHRTWV CONTS TO MOV SE TOWARD THE MO VALLEY RGN ON
WED...LINGERING ISEN LIFT REMAINS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
MIDWEST. MDLS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE EWD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS
LIFT...AS WELL AS DEEPER MSTR. THIS WL ALLOW THE SFC RDG TO
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON NE WI FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH SKY CONDITIONS
RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY (EAST) TO PARTLY CLDY (CNTRL). STILL
PLENTY OF COLD AIR OVR WI WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20
DEG RANGE.

SFC RDG FINALLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVR NE WI WED NGT AS THE ISEN LIFT
EDGES FARTHER INTO SW WI WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV TO MOV ACROSS THE UPR
MS VALLEY. BETTER LIFT REMAINS TO OUR WEST...HOWEVER THE ERN EDGE
OF LGT SNOW MAY CLIP CNTRL WI AFT MIDNGT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE
AS COLD AS PREV NGTS ESP OVR CNTRL WI WHERE MORE CLDS ARE EXPECTED.
ISEN LIFT INCREASES ENUF BY THU WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHRTWV...
TO JUSTIFY CARRYING A CHC POP ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA. LOOK
FOR GULF MSTR WL KEEP SNOW AMTS TO A MINIMUM WITH PERHAPS AN INCH
OR TWO PSBL...MAINLY FOCUSED OVR CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI WHERE LIFT IS A
BIT STRONGER. WEAK WAA WL BE ENUF TO RAISE TEMPS INTO THE LWR TO
MIDDLE 20S.

ANY LINGERING LGT SNOW OVR E-CNTRL WI SHOULD END THU EVENING AS
THE SHRTWV DEPARTS AND THE ISEN LIFT WEAKENS. FCST BECOMES A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN STARTING ON FRI WITH VARIOUS SHRTWVS DUMBELLING
AROUND AN ELONGATED UPR TROF WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE UPR MS
VALLEY TO SE CANADA. ONE SUCH SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO DROP/ROTATE SWD
INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LKS ON FRI. THERE APRS TO BE ENUF
FORCING PRESENT TO AT LEAST SQUEEZE OUT A CHC OF LGT SNOW ACROSS
NRN WI FRI WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FCST TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM INTO
WI...THUS HAVE KNOCKED OFF A COUPLE OF DEGS ON THE MAX TEMPS FOR
FRI.

A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVR THE GREAT LKS NXT
WEEKEND WITH VARIOUS TROFS AT THE SFC AND MID-LVLS ROTATING THRU
NE WI. VERY TOUGH TO TRY AND TIME THESE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES DURING
DAYS 6 AND 7 AND WITH MDLS PROVIDING A WIDE ARRAY OF SOLNS...FEEL
THAT IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MAKE BIG CHGS TO EITHER SAT OR
SUNDAY'S FCST. ONE THING THAT DOES SEEM EVIDENT IS A CONTINUATION
OF BLO NORMAL TEMPS RIGHT THRU NXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING OVER NC WI AND ALONG THE
LK MICH SHORELINE DUE TO LK-ENHANCED CLOUDS. LK-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN VILAS COUNTY...AND RADAR INDICATED
THAT SCT SHSN WERE ALSO AFFECTING NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. WINDS HAD
DROPPED OFF AWAY FROM THE LKSHR...BUT WILL LIKELY PICK UP A BIT
AGAIN AFTER TEMPS START TO WARM THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE AREAS
AFFECTED BY LK-ENHANCEMENT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...WITH GUSTS STILL EXCEEDING 50 KTS AT DEATH'S DOOR/GILLS
ROCK...WILL HANG ONTO THE STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN MARINE
ZONES TIL 12Z...FOLLOWED BY A GALE WARNING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
FARTHER SOUTH...JUST DOWNGRADED TO A GALE THROUGH 6 PM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ018>021-
030-031-035>039-045-048-049.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WIZ022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005.

&&

KIECKBUSCH/KALLAS

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