Wind Advisory 22, NWS Goodland, KS

190 
WWUS73 KGLD 261424
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
824 AM MDT TUE OCT 26 2010

COZ090>092-261530-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-101026T1500Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...
CHEYENNE WELLS
824 AM MDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE FREEZE
WARNING. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE 28 DEGREES. THEREFORE THE FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

NEZ079>081-262200-
/O.CON.KGLD.WI.Y.0022.101026T1700Z-101026T2200Z/
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BENKELMAN...TRENTON...MCCOOK
824 AM MDT TUE OCT 26 2010 /924 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING/DURATION...FROM MID DAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* PEAK WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 
  AROUND 45 MPH. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHTWEIGHT VEHICLE 
  MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS MAY 
  BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

&&

$$

BULLER

499 
WWUS73 KGLD 261813
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1213 PM MDT TUE OCT 26 2010

NEZ079>081-262200-
/O.CON.KGLD.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-101026T2200Z/
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BENKELMAN...TRENTON...MCCOOK
1213 PM MDT TUE OCT 26 2010 /113 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON. 

* TIMING/DURATION...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* PEAK WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
  AROUND 45 MPH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHTWEIGHT VEHICLE 
  MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR ITEMS MAY 
  BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

&&

$$

BULLER

826 
WWUS73 KGLD 262048
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 PM MDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...MORE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...

.A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION TOMORROW. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS
OF KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.

NEZ079>081-270330-
/O.CAN.KGLD.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-101026T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KGLD.WI.Y.0023.101027T1400Z-101028T0000Z/
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BENKELMAN...TRENTON...MCCOOK
248 PM MDT TUE OCT 26 2010 /348 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ TO 6 PM MDT
/7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ TO 6 PM
MDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 



* TIMING/DURATION...WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 9 AM MDT (10 AM CDT)
  AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON

* PEAK WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 55 MPH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHTWEIGHT VEHICLE
  MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. BE CAUTIOUS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY
  CAUSE SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.




PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

&&

$$

COZ090-091-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-270330-
/O.NEW.KGLD.WI.Y.0023.101027T1400Z-101028T0000Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-
SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...
ST. FRANCIS...ATWOOD...OBERLIN...NORTON...GOODLAND...COLBY...
HOXIE...HILL CITY...SHARON SPRINGS...OAKLEY...QUINTER
248 PM MDT TUE OCT 26 2010 /348 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ TO 6 PM MDT
/7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ TO 6 PM
MDT /7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY. 



* TIMING/DURATION...WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 9 AM MDT (10 AM CDT)
  AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON

* PEAK WINDS...SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
  GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHTWEIGHT VEHICLE
  MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. BE CAUTIOUS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY
  CAUSE SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

&&

$$

JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1113 PM MDT MON OCT 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...
245 PM MDT MON OCT 25 2010

1630Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
ROCKIES WITH RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN UTAH. AT THE SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF
BURLINGTON AND STRETCHED FROM KIT CARSON TO SAINT FRANCIS.
IMPRESSIVE GUSTS IN THE 45-48KT RANGE HAVE OCCURRED JUST BEHIND THE
FROPA. THE IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO WIND...FIRE
WX...FREEZE CONDITIONS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL ARE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...PV ANOMALY POSITION AND DIV Q FIELDS
INDICATE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AROUND 21Z AS
STRONG AND DEEP FRONTOGENESIS MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THETA E
LAPSE RATES AND EVEN DEEP LAYER MOST UNSTABLE CAPE PROFILES
INDICATING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO PRESENT...SO EXPECT CURRENT
PRECIP AREA TO EXPAND AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AS TROUGH APPROACHES. AS
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH...ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY STABILIZES SO EXPECT
PRECIP THREAT TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z. WILL MAKE A LAST
MINUTE CALL ON PRECIP THREAT BASED ON ONGOING RADAR
TRENDS...OTHERWISE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z AS
FRONT MAKES ITS FINAL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE
CHANGES APPROACHING 9 MB/3HR AND STRONG CAA THINK WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO MIX DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH GUSTS IN THE
45-50KT RANGE POSSIBLE. HAVE HAD ALMOST A MARGINAL HIGH WIND WARNING
CONDITIONS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...AND IF GUSTS PICK UP ANY MORE THAN
CURRENTLY MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH PERSIST ANT
WEAK CAA OVERNIGHT AND PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT WINDS LOOK
TO STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COMPLICATES OVERNIGHT LOW
FORECAST. ON ONE HAND CAA ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT TOTAL DECOUPLING OF THE WINDS...WITH THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT POSSIBLY ADDING A BIT OF WARMING DUE TO OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. WHILE THE WINDS MAY HOLD UP TEMPS...A COLDER AND DRIER
AIR MASS WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA. THIS AIR MASS COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES FOR A PORTION OF THE NIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE WIND S AND COOL RAPIDLY. WHILE SITUATION REMAINS
MARGINAL...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO CHANGE FROST
ADVISORY TO A FREEZE WARNING. ALSO CONSIDERED ADDING MORE COUNTIES
TO THE FROST ADVISORY...BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP AND AIR MASS
BEING VERY DRY IT IS UNLIKELY ANY FROST WILL FORM EVEN IF THE
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
UPPER MID WEST AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN A DEEPENING
SFC CYCLONE. FOR THE MOST PART CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF
LARGE SCALE TROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH COLD TEMPS
ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY HAVE CONCERNS THAT
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. WHILE I THINK THERE IS
A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIP...DO NOT THINK THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A PRECIP MENTION AT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE
SCALE...ORGANIZED FORCING.

WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AS DEEPENING LOW WILL KEEP A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
THAT STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SFC RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS NEITHER MODEL IS PREDICTING A VERY STRONG INVERSION. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
MIXED LAYER INFORMATION WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ADVISORY TYPE DAY IN
THE NORTHEAST. WHILE ANOTHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HEADLINES ALL RUNNING AT ONCE HAVE DECIDED
TO HOLD OFF TO AVOID CONFUSION. WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE COMPLICATIONS
TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW FORECASTS AS DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
WINDS DO NOT TOTALLY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AM A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT THAT WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AS CWA GETS
FARTHER FROM SFC LOW AND LOW ITSELF IS NO LONGER DEEPENING. LOOKS
LIKE POTENTIAL FOR CWA WIDE FROST WITH HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN HALF OF CWA.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST
AS RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS
SOME WAA ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING RIDGE...DIV Q FIELDS AND VERY
STABLE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPS/TDS/FIRE WX AND WIND.
IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED PATTERN EVOLUTION...PARTICULARLY WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
OPERATIONAL MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT...ENSEMBLE DATA NOT SO
SIMILAR. 00Z GEFS HAS CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS MUCH SLOWER THAN
OPERATIONAL RUNS...ALTHOUGH THIS CLUSTERING NOT APPARENT IN 06Z
DATA. FOR THE TIME BEING THINK KEEPING NEAR OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
THE WAY TO GO...BUT WITH DECREASED CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ENSEMBLE DATA.

BEST POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
MORNING AS SFC RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE CWA. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR
SKIES AND A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BELOW 28 DEGREES
EVERYWHERE. SOME CONCERNS ABOUT OVERALL AIR MASS WARMING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS...BUT THINK RADIATIVE EFFECTS WILL WIN OUT
OVER ANY LARGE SCALE ISSUES.

CWA WILL BEGIN PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE...WITH
PATTERN BREAKING DOWN INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. WHILE MODELS STILL SUGGESTING PASSAGE OF COMPACT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE REALLY TOO LOW TO
MENTION A PRECIP THREAT AT THIS TIME. TEMP FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY
AS TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S APPEAR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE LOWERS FROM SATURDAY ON. IF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MATERIALIZES
WILL LIKELY DRIVE A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...DROPPING
TEMPS 10+ DEGREES...BUT IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MATERIALIZE OR IS
SLOWER (ALL POSSIBLE VIA ENSEMBLE DATA) TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN IN
THE 70S. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE WENT WITH A COMPROMISE KEEPING
TEMPS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
JRM

&&

.AVIATION...
1113 PM MDT MON OCT 25 2010

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH STRONG
JET AXIS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

024
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
245 PM MDT MON OCT 25 2010

DEVELOPING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. VERY DRY
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AND
WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES. WHILE THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT LINE UP WITH
DRIEST AIR...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR A PORTION OF
THE AREA TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY OVER A
MUCH LARGER AREA. WANT TO HOLD OFF FROM ISSUING BACK TO BACK
HIGHLIGHTS THAT COVER DIFFERENT AREAS FOR THE TIME BEING.

JRM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001-002-013-014.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ252-253.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ090>092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1022 AM MDT MON OCT 25 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-261400-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1022 AM MDT MON OCT 25 2010 /1122 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA THIS AFTEROON AND EVENING. WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR.

OTHERWISE...FROST WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY THIS WEEK AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.