Tornado Warning 57, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT NORTH DURING THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
THEN SETTLE BACK OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO/SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
DAYBREAK BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
NEARLY THE SAME. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. AM
THINKING THESE RECENT OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVENTS WILL DRIVE THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NAM IDEA.

WILL REINTRODUCE STRATUS (80%+ SKY COVER GRIDS) AND FOG INTO THE
FORECAST FAVORING NAM/RUC MODELS GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCE THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LESS
HOT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MIDDLE WHERE EITHER THE HOTTER OR LESS HOTTER AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE. AROUND/NEAR 90 NORTH WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 SOUTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY SLOWLY/SLIGHTLY
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE AT THE SFC LEE TROUGH
ALONG CO/KS BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE LOW AND MID 90S.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
1132 AM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MORNING STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AND
SHOULD LIFT AT KMCK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE THE LIKELY INITIATING MECHANISMS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGION OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

024

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-211245-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1040 AM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010 /1140 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED
OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TRIBUNE TO NORTON KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
324 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HAIL             13 NW LEOTI             38.62N 101.53W
06/20/2010  E0.88 INCH       WICHITA            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HENDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
327 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     HAIL             13 NW LEOTI             38.62N 101.53W
06/20/2010  E1.00 INCH       WICHITA            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTION FOR SIZE.

&&

HENDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
331 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 E GOVE                38.96N 100.40W
06/20/2010  M63 MPH          GOVE               KS   MESONET

&&

HENDERSON