Tornado Warning 25, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
447 PM MDT TUE MAY 18 2010

.DISCUSSION...
1156 AM MDT TUE MAY 18 2010

A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE MOVING EAST WHILE EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD TSRA ALONG NOSE OF LLJ. PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS ~200% OF NORMAL SUPPORTING SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN IN ADDITION TO HAILERS. MAINTAINED HIGH POPS
THROUGH WED NIGHT AS H5 LOW TRANSLATES OVER THE AREA. TRENDED POPS
DOWN AFTER 18Z THU AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. RISING TEMPS/DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FRI
AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.

SAT-TUE...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS PROGGED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
H85-H7 THERMAL RIDGE SUPPORTS MAXIMUM VALUES IN THE UPPER
80S/POSSIBLY REACHING 90. WARM H7 TEMPS SHOULD PRECLUDE DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AND REMOVED AFTERNOON/EVENING MENTION FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

SUN-TUE...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SSW MID/UPPER FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS THEME WITH DIURNAL TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION...
447 PM MDT TUE MAY 18 2010

FOR 00Z TAFS...DIFFICULT TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE RUC
INDICATES STORMS SHOULD START IMPACTING BOTH KGLD AND KMCK BY 03Z.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BEAR DOWN ON NORTHWEST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH SITES WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TAF PERIOD.

FS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1029 AM MDT TUE MAY 18 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191600-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1029 AM MDT TUE MAY 18 2010 /1129 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF GOLFBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF A YUMA TO TRIBUNE
LINE.

STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE
THREAT TRANSITIONING TO LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT.

THE HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS SUCH
AS GOVE...LOGAN...SHERIDAN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE SOME HEAVY
RAIN FELL SATURDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM WRAY COLORADO TO GOODLAND
AND GOVE KANSAS.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
ROCKIES...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 1 PM MDT ALONG AND WEST OF A YUMA TO
TRIBUNE LINE.