Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 PM MDT MON MAY 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
233 PM MDT MON MAY 10 2010

THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR NORTHWEST KS.
KGLD RADAR DETECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF ITR TO SOUTH
OF HLC.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT/TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST ISSUES ARE POPS AND FOG FOR TONIGHT.

CURRENT TORNADO WATCH 146 WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE FA
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE OVER BEHIND THE EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN FA. EVENING POPS WILL
RANGE FROM LIKELY IN THE FAR EAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE REST OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA. POPS WILL BE NIL FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  CONSIDERED ADDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO EASTERN
COLORADO TUE AFTERNOON BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE IS
NOT FAVORABLE UNTIL LATER. FOG WILL PERSIST TONIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FA WHERE MIXING FROM THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT
EXPECTED. PLAN TO LEAVE OUT FOG IN THE HLC AREA DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THERE. SOME FOG MAY TRY TO REDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN FA
BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AND LOOKS MORE LIKE STRATUS ON THE SOUNDING SO
WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE WEST.

TUE NIGHT...DYNAMICS FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN UTAH WILL
AFFECT THE FA. HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS WEAK SO WILL ADJUST WEATHER
GRIDS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
EVENING MAY BE RATHER QUIET BUT WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO FANCY WITH
TIMING.

WED/WED NIGHT...BEST DYNAMICS ARE IN THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST WED NIGHT. PLAN TO KEEP CURRENT
LIKELY/CHANCE POPS FOR THE TWO PERIODS. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL SO
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE PROFILE BECOMES UNFAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AFTER 06Z THU SO
HAVE REMOVED THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND REPLACED WITH SILENT POPS.

THU/THU NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE NIL POPS FOR
THESE PERIODS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY DUE TO UPSLOPE. MORE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OVER THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES AS WELL. MORE SUN WILL BE AVAILABLE ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE
LOWER 60S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO THE LOWER 30S WED
NIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
THU NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...A RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A RIDGE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHER THAN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY THE
MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS WARMING TEMPERATURES AT 850 AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BY MONDAY. 850
TEMPERATURES RISE FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. THIS SHOULD
YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
546 AM MDT MON MAY 10 2010

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...

AT KGLD...RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE...WHICH WILL LIKELY STALL OUT NEAR OR JUST WEST OF KGLD.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH NORTHEAST STORM MOTION COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINAL WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING.

AT KMCK...WILL BE SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR SMALL. COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON....WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CIGS AND VISIBILITY.

024
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1015 AM MDT MON MAY 10 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1015 AM MDT MON MAY 10 2010 /1115 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRY LINE
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM IDALIA COLORADO TO GOODLAND AND RUSSELL
SPRINGS KANSAS. ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THOSE AREAS...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING THE
THREAT OF STORMS BY MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...NONE OF THESE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS THE
MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1238 PM MDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TORNADO          1 ENE LEOTI             38.49N 101.34W
05/10/2010                   WICHITA            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN OPEN FIELD

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1251 PM MDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 SW RUSSELL SPRINGS    38.85N 101.25W
05/10/2010                   LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1258 PM MDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     TORNADO          MARIENTHAL              38.49N 101.21W
05/10/2010                   WICHITA            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN EAST EDGE OF TOWN ON GRANT STREET.
            SHED DAMAGED.

&&

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
120 PM MDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     TORNADO          5 S RUSSELL SPRINGS     38.84N 101.18W
05/10/2010                   LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TORNADO          15 SW OAKLEY            38.97N 101.05W
05/10/2010                   LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

50

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