Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 PM MDT MON AUG 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
242 PM MDT MON AUG 9 2010

FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT AND THE WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
WITH HEAT INDICIES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NEEDING AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO NEED A HEAT ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST TONIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS RETROGRADES BACK OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MID WEEK WITH
AN OVERALL FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHER PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING COOLER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY BETWEEN
THURSDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY EVENING.

LOCKHART
&&

.AVIATION...
514 PM MDT MON AUG 9 2010

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD  OUT OF COLORADO INTO KANSAS/NEBRASKA WITH A THREAT
FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
STRATUS FOG DEVELOPMENT.  FOR NOW DOWNSLOPE SHOULD HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON LOWERING CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
AFTER 09Z DURING THIS TAF CYCLE.

DR
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT MON AUG 9 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1030 AM MDT SUN AUG 8 2010 /1130 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
624 PM MDT MON AUG 9 2010

KSZ027-100100-
WALLACE-
624 PM MDT MON AUG 9 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 619 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF SHARON SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT
35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3901 10193 3902 10149 3870 10151 3869 10166
      3869 10185
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 177DEG 28KT 3881 10169

JRM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
709 PM MDT MON AUG 09 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E HILL CITY           39.37N 99.83W
08/09/2010  E70 MPH          GRAHAM             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ESTIMATED 60-70 MPH WINDS WITH 2-3 INCH TREEE BRANCHES
            BLOWN DOWN AND GUTTERS BLOWN OFF HOUSE.

&&

HENDERSON