Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
604 PM MDT WED JUL 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...
224 PM MDT WED JUL 21 2010

THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH
A WARM EXTENDING EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING WARM FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS NORTH INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME MOVING NORTH INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AN APPARENT
SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MOVING EAST. LIGHTNING
DETECTION PICKING UP LOTS OF STRIKES OVER THAT AREA.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT. A
TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS.

A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT
AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH. ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THE
FOCUS IN EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON. PLAN TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS AGAIN ON FRIDAY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHER CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FA. THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. BEST CHANCES ON SATURDAY
SHOULD RESULT FROM CONVERGENCE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND THEN STORMS MOVING EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING FOR STORMS MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE FA SATURDAY
NIGHT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY BUT STORM MOTION IS AROUND 20 MPH. PLAN TO MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF HIGHER POPS.

LEANED TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT
AND WARMER SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL BE BACK IN THE UPPER 90S WITH THE FRONT NORTH OF THE FA. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH. READINGS
ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 60S WITH EXCEPTIONS OF LOWER 70S IN THE EAST AND LOWER
60S IN THE WEST.

IN THE EXTENDED...A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES DURING THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY BUT ANOTHER TROUGH STARTS SETTING UP OVER EASTERN COLORADO
EARLY AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED IN THE
FLOW ON SUNDAY SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. PLAN
TO RESTRICT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO AN AREA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ON
MONDAY. RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 UNTIL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN READINGS SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S. MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL TO THE MID/UPPER 60S.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
524 PM MDT WED JUL 21 2010

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KMCK
AND KGLD. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA DURING THAT TIME. EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO DIMINISH BY
09Z. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS TO MOVE OUT OF
COLORADO AFTER ABOUT 18Z...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LOCKHART
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 AM MDT WED JUL 21 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-221200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE
KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLA
CE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1024 AM MDT WED JUL 21 2010 /1124 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS ENTIRE
TIME...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

024

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 PM MDT WED JUL 21 2010

NEZ080-212300-
HITCHCOCK-
536 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 534 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR STRATTON NE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF A DIME...WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN WITH RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL DROP VISIBILITIES
LOCALLY BELOW ONE MILE.

&&

LAT...LON 4007 10113 4017 10133 4035 10119 4034 10085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 214DEG 22KT 4020 10116

THEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
441 PM MDT WED JUL 21 2010

COZ090-212315-
YUMA COUNTY-
441 PM MDT WED JUL 21 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 439 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OTIS...OR 11 MILES WEST OF YUMA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THE COMMUNITY OF CLARKVILLE MAY BE
IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10232 4043 10226 4010 10280 4034 10280
      4035 10278 4042 10278 4044 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 226DEG 15KT 4014 10292

THEDE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
525 PM MDT WED JUL 21 2010

COZ090-220030-
YUMA COUNTY-
525 PM MDT WED JUL 21 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 518 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF
OTIS TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF OTIS TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LONE
STAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
WITH RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAUSING SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. A FEW AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LAND OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF YUMA...CLARKVILLE...ECKLEY
AND WAUNETA.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10210 4027 10225 4004 10238 3998 10281
      3999 10281 4000 10280 4034 10280 4035 10278
      4043 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 260DEG 18KT 4004 10289 4019 10281
          4032 10271

THEDE

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