Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 PM MDT WED JUL 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
257 PM MDT WED JUL 14 2010

FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS
EVENING.

LONGER TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK AGAIN BY SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLIPS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE GREATER POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION ON THURSDAY AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS TRANSLATES TO AN ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE PRODUCING HUGE CAPE VALUES WITH SOMEWHAT
LOWER SHEAR VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD INDICATE ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF LARGE HAIL.

HEAT INDICES HAVE BEEN A CONCERN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE CENTURY MARK. NO LONGER EXPECT IT TO BE A CONCERN ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH DRYER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. DEWPOINT VALUES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...SO HEAT
INDICES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

THE NAM IS HINTING AT A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND MORE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY EVENING THAN
THE GFS. HAVE TRENDED THE POPS UPWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT HAVE STILL KEPT THEM FAIRLY LOW DUE TO A LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE GFS SEEMS TO
STALL IT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LOCKHART
&&

.AVIATION...
524 PM MDT WED JUL 14 2010

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AT BOTH GLD AND MCK TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...WITH TSRA POSSIBLY REACHING THE
GLD TERMINAL BY 02Z. HOWEVER...FROPA LOOKS TO UNDERCUT CONVECTION
BEFORE IT REACHES THE KS/CO BORDER...WITH RADAR ALREADY INDICATING A
WEAKENING TREND AS CONVECTION MOVES EASTWARD.

A POST FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TONIGHT...LEADING TO A THREAT FOR LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MET GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...HOWEVER I THINK THIS IS TOO NEGATIVE WITH NAM POTENTIALLY
OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. FOR GLD....BASED ON RUC BL
RH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 07Z
WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING A SHORT WINDOW BEFORE SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST OVER MCK...AS LOWER DP VALUES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW LEVELS FROM SATURATING.

ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DR
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ004-015-016-029.

NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT WED JUL 14 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151300-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT WED JUL 14 2010 /1145 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN NORTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND EAST OF A NORTON TO TRIBUNE
LINE. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 THE REST OF TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS...INCLUDING THE COUNTIES OF
NORTON...GRAHAM...SHERIDAN AND GOVE....WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
423 PM MDT WED JUL 14 2010

KSZ029-142330-
GOVE-
523 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 520 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES EAST OF THE MONUMENT ROCKS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3873 10066 3885 10047 3869 10017 3869 10018
      3869 10061
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 313DEG 7KT 3876 10051

BULLER

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