Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE FRONT RANGE CONTINUES A
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT TOWARD OUR AREA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH
A SFC TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO EXPECTATION OF SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY AREA UNDER SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW THAT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED
TIMING OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH OVERALL SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPORTING CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UPPER 80S EAST...LOW
TO MID 90S ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY. 850
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES OF 100+ ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES COOLER. PARTIAL
MIXING AT 850 STILL SUPPORTS HIGHS AROUND 100. HAVE UPPED HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THESE MAY BE
ON THE LOW SIDE. GFS/NAM HANDLING SFC PRESSURE/WIND FORECASTS
DIFFERENTLY WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...DEEP UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE US BORDER
MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY PUSHING A FRONT INTO/THROUGH THE AREA
SUPPORTING A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MID 90S. FOR THURSDAY SFC
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH AS UPPER
FLOW NEARLY ZONAL. 850 TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER THAN THE MEX GUIDANCE WHICH IS SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER. USED HPC GUIDANCE AND KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OFF AS
A START. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UPPER HIGH CENTER EXPECTED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW OVER THE AREA. SFC WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...NEAR 90 FRIDAY AND LOW 90S SATURDAY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
1140 AM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WORK THERE WAY
ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 22 AND 06Z. ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG FRONT NEAR KLIC...WITH FRONT ITSELF
EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS KOGA. WHILE THINK THERE WILL BE STORMS
AROUND WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO A MCS EARLY IN THE EVENING...LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN SHORT TERM AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION A PREVAILING TS IN EITHER TAF AT
THIS TIME.

JRM

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111315-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1033 AM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010 /1133 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO AROUND GOLFBALL SIZE...DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH AXIS CENTERED ALONG
A WAUNETA TO FLAGLER LINE AFTER 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT) AND MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
335 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             10 WSW PALISADE         40.29N 101.28W
07/10/2010  E1.75 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ALSO ESTIMATES PEAK WIND GUST OF 50 MPH.

&&

FOLTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
415 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

NEZ079-080-102245-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-
515 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DUNDY AND HITCHCOCK COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...

AT 413 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAX...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4009 10107 4004 10139 4025 10149 4035 10108
      4035 10106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 246DEG 28KT 4016 10133

MENTZER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
424 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

KSZ013-102300-
SHERMAN-
424 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 418 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SHERMAN COUNTY. ONE STORM WAS LOCATED 6
MILES SOUTH OF EDSON WHILE SANOTHER WAS 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GOODLAND. STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

STORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZED HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 10201 3955 10203 3955 10141 3913 10139
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 262DEG 16KT 3924 10151

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
426 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             6 SSE WRAY              40.00N 102.19W
07/10/2010  E0.88 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

FOLTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             5 NNW STRATTON NE       40.21N 101.28W
07/10/2010  M1.00 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

HENDERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
444 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

KSZ027-041-102315-
GREELEY-WALLACE-
444 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALLACE AND GREELEY COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS...

AT 440 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 9 MILES SOUTH OF WESKAN...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 10205 3891 10204 3895 10148 3869 10151
      3869 10157 3853 10157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 263DEG 16KT 3873 10196

MENTZER