Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
230 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

H5 RIDGE AXIS WAS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE
NORTHWEST H5 FLOW WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD TSRA IS EXPECTED AFTER 04-06Z IN LOW LVL WAA REGIME.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD ALLOW PCPN TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST ZONES AFTER
08-10Z. THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE STEEPEST H7-H5 LAPSE RATES/MUCAPE OF
400-500 J/KG MAY ALLOW A FEW HAILERS TO EXIST.

EARLY MORNING PCPN SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST RAPIDLY WITH CLEARING
ANTICIPATED BY MID-LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND MORE ROBUST
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF SFC LOW AFTER 20-22Z.
REMOVED MIDDAY POPS ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES WHILE
REINTRODUCING HIGHER POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AFTER
21Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST BY 04-06Z WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH SCT TSRA ANTICIPATED UNDER H5
COLD POOL BY AFTERNOON.

H5 TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SAT WITH SCT SHRA
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION SAT EVENING BRINGING AN
END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
LOW LVL FLOW, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 30S SUPPORTING
SCT FROST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. THIS SCENARIO MAY BE REPEATED
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
30S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MON BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PCPN AND LOW LVL CAA MAINTAINING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUE-WED
WITH PHASE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A SUBTLE RISE IN
TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE VALUES IN
THE UPPER 60S/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
545 AM MDT WED APR 21 2010

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE MAIN PROBLEM AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE IFR
CEILINGS UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AFTER THAT...CEILINGS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE MVFR OR JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE. DURING THE EVENING
BEFORE THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP.
BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND DURING THE NIGHT BUT COVERAGE
AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. SO JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS AND CB
AT THIS TIME.

BULLER
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 AM MDT THU APR 22 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1030 AM MDT THU APR 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A
SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG OR SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

AS THE STORMS MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT,
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TOWARD
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 PM     HAIL             5 ESE TRIBUNE           38.44N 101.67W
04/22/2010  E1.25 INCH       GREELEY            KS   PUBLIC

&&

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
301 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             10 S SHARON SPRINGS     38.75N 101.75W
04/22/2010  E1.25 INCH       WALLACE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL WAS OBSERVED.

&&

JRM