Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT NORTH DURING THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
THEN SETTLE BACK OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO/SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
DAYBREAK BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
NEARLY THE SAME. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. AM
THINKING THESE RECENT OVERNIGHT PRECIP EVENTS WILL DRIVE THE FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE NAM IDEA.

WILL REINTRODUCE STRATUS (80%+ SKY COVER GRIDS) AND FOG INTO THE
FORECAST FAVORING NAM/RUC MODELS GIVEN THEIR PERFORMANCE THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND LESS
HOT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MIDDLE WHERE EITHER THE HOTTER OR LESS HOTTER AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE. AROUND/NEAR 90 NORTH WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 SOUTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY SLOWLY/SLIGHTLY
SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE AT THE SFC LEE TROUGH
ALONG CO/KS BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GIVES WAY TO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO THE LOW AND MID 90S.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
1132 AM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MORNING STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AND
SHOULD LIFT AT KMCK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE NEAR INTERSTATE 70 AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE THE LIKELY INITIATING MECHANISMS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGION OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

024

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-211245-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1040 AM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010 /1140 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED
OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TRIBUNE TO NORTON KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     FLASH FLOOD      22 ESE RUSSELL SPRINGS  38.79N 100.80W
06/20/2010                   GOVE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOCATION IS ESTIMATED. SHERIFF REPORTED NUMEROUS ROADS
            FLOODED.

&&

HENDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TORNADO          25 S OAKLEY             38.76N 100.85W
06/20/2010                   LOGAN              KS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA EMERGENCY MANAGER. LOCATION APPROXIMATE.
            PERSON MAKING REPORT WAS 5 MILES SOUTH OF OAKLEY LOOKING
            SOUTH.

&&

HENDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
610 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 SSE THE MONUMENT ROCK 38.71N 100.75W
06/20/2010                   GOVE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD WITH RAPIDLY ROTATING WALL CLOUD

&&

HENDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
611 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 SE THE MONUMENT ROCKS 38.70N 100.71W
06/20/2010                   GOVE               KS   STORM CHASER

            2 FUNNEL CLOUDS RELAYED BY MEDIA

&&

HENDERSON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
645 PM MDT SUN JUN 20 2010

KSZ015-029-210130-
GOVE-SHERIDAN-
745 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
NORTHWEST GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 740 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRINNELL...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3890 10072 3901 10081 3909 10081 3913 10074
      3913 10072 3915 10071 3937 10038 3917 10018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 231DEG 38KT 3905 10068

BULLER