Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
321 AM MDT SAT JUN 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...
320 AM MDT SAT JUN 19 2010

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST OVER KANSAS WITH A RIDGE MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS AND THEN SHIFTING EAST BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT
MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE FA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH THE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF CAPE (AROUND 4000 J/KG) AND GOOD SHEAR
(40-45KTS) EACH DAY. HOWEVER H7 TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 14-16 C. THE
NAM SHOWS ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND 00Z WHEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS OFF TO AROUND 60 J/KG MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST FA. OTHERWISE
CIN VALUES ARE HIGH. SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FA SHOW VERY DRY MID LEVELS.
BOUNDARIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST FA AND THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL VARY BUT WILL BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE KANSAS ZONES FROM EAST TO WEST. DUE TO THE
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND CIN HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS
FOR MOST PERIODS.

SPC HAS ISSUED SEVERE WATCH 348 FOR YUMA AND DUNDY COUNTIES
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 14Z SAT. PLAN TO MONITOR STORMS AND POSSIBLY CANCEL
EARLY.

SATELLITE/METARS SHOWING STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST FA SO WILL
INCLUDE A MORNING PERIOD OF STRATUS. THIS LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL RUN
IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. MAV GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR MIN TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
1057 PM MDT FRI JUN 18 2010

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VERY COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS. ALL IS DEPENDENT
ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT ENDS UP THROUGH TOMORROW WHICH THE MODELS
DO NOT AGREE ON. MODELS LOOK A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
ACTIVITY AND MAY NOT IMPACT THE KMCK TAF AS EARLIER THOUGHT. SO
PULLED BACK TO JUST A CB MENTION. ALSO DIFFERENCE IN WHERE THE
STRATUS AND FOG END UP. PULLED BACK ON THE CEILING HEIGHT BUT KEPT
IT IN THE MVFR RANGE.

CLOUDS LOOK TO NOT BREAK AT KMCK BUT DID RAISE THEM TO JUST ABOVE
MVFR. AGAIN NOT SURE WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP PLUS WE MAY
END UP CAPPED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SO CHOSE TO HANDLE WITH A CB
MENTION BUT AT THIS TIME KMCK LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THAT SITE.

BULLER
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1032 AM MDT FRI JUN 18 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191615-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1032 AM MDT FRI JUN 18 2010 /1132 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF A HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA. THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A YUMA TO GOVE LINE.

LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS.
THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND
EAST OF A MCCOOK TO HILL CITY LINE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. IF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1216 AM MDT SAT JUN 19 2010

COZ090-190645-
YUMA COUNTY-
1216 AM MDT SAT JUN 19 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 1213 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLARKVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10236 4035 10231 4023 10277 4029 10280
      4034 10280 4035 10278 4042 10278 4044 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 0616Z 247DEG 20KT 4035 10270

STASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1220 AM MDT SAT JUN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     HAIL             3 W CLARKVILLE          40.38N 102.68W
06/19/2010  E0.75 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
110 AM MDT SAT JUN 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     HAIL             10 WNW WAUNETA          40.35N 102.43W
06/19/2010  E0.75 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

50