Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 PM MDT WED JUN 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MDT WED JUN 16 2010

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT FAR EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC
DRYLINE. OTHERWISE AM EXPECTING LOTS OF SUN AND WARM TEMPERATURES
AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS STAGNANT WITH TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME AS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA...FOR NOW HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT
THOSE AREAS WITH HIGHEST SILENT POPS. BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT AS BEST 850-700 MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...OTHERWISE ABOVE 700MB ITS QUITE DRY. MAY
SEE SOME STRATUS AND/OR FOG AS WELL...BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS A BIT TO
HINT AT POSSIBLE STRATUS LOCATION PER GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 85-90 NORTHWEST...95 TO NEAR 100
EAST/SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
TROUGHING IN THE NORTHWEST STATES WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. SFC PATTERN SHOWS
LESS AGREEMENT MAKING SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST DIFFICULT.
CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER
SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. ON WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE LINGERS IN THE AREA WITH JUST
ABOUT EVERY WIND DIRECTION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU ARE
WITH RESPECTS TO THE LOW. OVERALL...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 90S...OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR NORMAL. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON PRECIP CHANCES AS MOST OF THE
BETTER MOISTURE IS OUTSIDE THE AREA.

07
&&

.AVIATION...
542 PM MDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE 00Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE EFFECTIVE PERIOD. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN COLORADO BETWEEN KLHX AND KLAA BUT HAS TAKEN ON MORE
OF AN EASTWARD COMPONENT SO FEEL CHANCES FOR IMPACT ON KGLD ARE
SLIM. WILL HAVE A FEW CB AROUND THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT KGLD THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY WHEN THEY BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. SIMILAR WIND PATTERN
FOR KMCK BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 18Z TOMORROW
YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE
EFFECTIVE PERIOD.

FOLTZ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1035 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-171600-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1035 AM MDT WED JUN 16 2010 /1135 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 25 MPH
AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH EVENING FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JRM