Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
523 PM MDT TUE JUN 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
123 PM MDT TUE JUN 1 2010

WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS IN A FAST
ZONAL FLOW REGIME.

MAINTAINED MID POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH 06-09Z BEFORE
SHIFTING POP AXIS EAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MOST VIGOROUS DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG NOSE OF LLJ, STRONG FRONTAL-SCALE FORCING/ELEVATED CAPE AOA
2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH MINIMAL CINH SHOULD RESULT IN SCT SEVERE
TSRA WEIGHTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING.

STABLE POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON WED AND PULLED
POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM AS CINH WEAKENS ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THU-FRI WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW/RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS LEADING TO RISING
TEMPERATURES. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURED THE ANTICIPATED
SCENARIO WELL WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW REGIME IS STILL PROGGED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE MODEST
MID/UPPER WEST/NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS
MAY LEAD TO A SERIES OF FROPAS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
&&

.AVIATION...
520 PM MDT TUE JUN 1 2010

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ROUGHLY 07Z WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TIL 15Z OR SO AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS MOVES
IN. MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DOING WELL THE PAST FEW DAYS SO TRENDED
IN ITS DIRECTION. FOR NOW KEPT CIGS SCT BETWEEN 100-700 FT AND
WILL AWAIT 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE PUSHING THEM INTO MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY. AFTER 16Z OR SO SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
SITES.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF KMCK EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 01Z PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO 30KTS OR SO. OTHERWISE...AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHRA/TSRA TOO LOW TO PUT AS A PREVAILING GROUP FOR NOW...WILL
MAINTAIN CB FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

07

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1101 AM MDT TUE JUN 1 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1101 AM MDT TUE JUN 1 2010 /1201 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
LOW...ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BUT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
418 PM MDT TUE JUN 1 2010

KSZ002-003-014-015-012230-
DECATUR-RAWLINS-SHERIDAN-THOMAS-
518 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...DECATUR
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR REXFORD...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

JRM

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