Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Goodland, KS

684 
WWUS83 KGLD 071717
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1017 AM MST SUN NOV 7 2010

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...

.VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL CREATE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

COZ254-KSZ016-027>029-041-042-080000-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0013.101107T1800Z-101108T0000Z/
CHEYENNE CO-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
1017 AM MST SUN NOV 7 2010 /1117 AM CST SUN NOV 7 2010/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE ZONES
016...027...028...029...041...042 AND 254...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON. 

* AFFECTED AREA: IN COLORADO...FIRE ZONE 254 CHEYENNE CO. IN
  KANSAS...FIRE ZONE 016 GRAHAM...FIRE ZONE 027 WALLACE...FIRE
  ZONE 028 LOGAN...FIRE ZONE 029 GOVE...FIRE ZONE 041 GREELEY...
  FIRE ZONE 042 WICHITA.

* WIND: SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL 
  DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

* HUMIDITY: RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 15 PERCENT OR 
  LOWER.

* IMPACTS: THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS...STRONG WINDS AND LOW 
  HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW FIRES TO START QUICKLY AND SPREAD 
  FURIOUSLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GOODLAND

189 
WWUS83 KGLD 080001
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
501 PM MST SUN NOV 7 2010

COZ254-KSZ016-027>029-041-042-080115-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-101108T0000Z/
CHEYENNE CO-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
501 PM MST SUN NOV 7 2010 /601 PM CST SUN NOV 7 2010/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR FIRE ZONES
016...027...028...029...041...042 AND 254...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON. 


$$


HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GOODLAND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
501 PM MDT SAT NOV 6 2010

.DISCUSSION...
142 PM MDT SAT NOV 6 2010

ISSUES FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE REVOLVE AROUND FIRE WX ISSUES
FOR SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON MONDAY. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WX
WATCH VALID FOR TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CWA. RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING BY LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY. TO AVOID HEADLINE/PUBLIC CONFUSION I HELD OFF ON ISSUING A
WATCH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. BOTH DAYS WILL BE
WARM WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATE ON TUE INTO WED A DEEPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WHICH
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. AT THIS TIME THE
WAVE APPEARS TO LACK SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AFTER IT CROSSES THE
ROCKIES - RAIN SHADOWING. I DID LEAVE IN THE LOW POPS FOR TUE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COLORADO COUNTIES AND FOR TUE NIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN THE SCANT QPF DEPICTED BY THE EC AND THE GFS.

BEHIND THAT WAVE A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE WED
NIGHT INTO THR. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO PLACEMENT AND TIMING. IN FACT DPROG/DT OF THE GFS AND
EC HAVE FLIPPED BACK AND FORTH THE PAST FOUR RUNS. THE GFS CURRENTLY
DEPICTS A DRY FCST WHILE THE EC HAS A DEEP LOW OVER THE AREA WELL
INTO FRIDAY. THE INHERITED FCST HAS CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM
AND I SEE NO REASON TO PUSH OR PULL THE FCST GIVEN SUCH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIP...OR LACK THERE
OF... COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND.

AEP

&&

.AVIATION...
501 PM MDT SAT NOV 6 2010

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EFFECTIVE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS AT KGLD WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE EFFECTIVE PERIOD...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON KGLD WINDS.

CJS
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR KSZ016-027>029-041-042.

NE...NONE.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ254.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1230 PM MDT SAT NOV 6 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1230 PM MDT SAT NOV 6 2010 /130 PM CDT SAT NOV 6 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KIT CARSON COLORADO TO OAKLEY TO
HILL CITY.  THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT
AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DLF/BULLER