Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
525 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
230 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

H5 RIDGE AXIS WAS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE
NORTHWEST H5 FLOW WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD TSRA IS EXPECTED AFTER 04-06Z IN LOW LVL WAA REGIME.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD ALLOW PCPN TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST ZONES AFTER
08-10Z. THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE STEEPEST H7-H5 LAPSE RATES/MUCAPE OF
400-500 J/KG MAY ALLOW A FEW HAILERS TO EXIST.

EARLY MORNING PCPN SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST RAPIDLY WITH CLEARING
ANTICIPATED BY MID-LATE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIURNAL HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND MORE
ROBUST DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF SFC LOW AFTER
20-22Z. REMOVED MIDDAY POPS ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES WHILE
REINTRODUCING HIGHER POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AFTER
21Z. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST BY 04-06Z WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH SCT TSRA ANTICIPATED UNDER H5
COLD POOL BY AFTERNOON.

H5 TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SAT WITH SCT SHRA
REMAINING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION SAT EVENING BRINGING AN
END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
LOW LVL FLOW, TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 30S SUPPORTING
SCT FROST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. THIS SCENARIO MAY BE REPEATED
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE OUT OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SHOULD LEAD TO
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON MON
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND LOW LVL CAA MAINTAINING
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUE-WED
WITH PHASE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A SUBTLE RISE IN
TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE VALUES IN
THE UPPER 60S/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
525 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MCK THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVER GLD. MAIN AVIATION
CONCERNS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...THEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z
AT BOTH TERMINALS. NAM GUIDANCE HINTS AT DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR
CONDITIONS OVER BOTH TERMINALS...HOWEVER WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
THAN LAST FEW NIGHTS...AND INCREASED MIXING WITH RAIN AFTER 08Z...I
FEEL NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH MAY BE OVERDONE AND IFR IS MORE LIKELY.
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATIONS...I CURRENTLY HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER GLD TERMINAL...WITH MORE
UNCERTAINTY OVER MCK IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND COVERAGE...SO HAVE
LEFT VCTS IN FOR MCK AT THIS TIME.

DR
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 AM MDT THU APR 22 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1030 AM MDT THU APR 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A
SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG OR SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

AS THE STORMS MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TONIGHT,
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TOWARD
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
613 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     FLASH FLOOD      12 N FIRSTVIEW          39.00N 102.54W
04/22/2010                   CHEYENNE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BETWEEN COUNTY ROADS 34 AND 38 ON COUNTY ROAD DD

&&

HENDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
619 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TORNADO          14 NNE FIRSTVIEW        39.02N 102.46W
04/22/2010                   CHEYENNE           CO   STORM CHASER

            TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND 4 TO 5 MINUTES THEN ROPED OUT.

&&

MLAMMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
643 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             2 E STRATTON            39.30N 102.57W
04/22/2010  E0.25 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATED DIME TO
            NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AS WELL AS INTERSTATE
            70. HAD TO CALL OUT ROAD CREWS TO CLEAR THE INTERSTATE.
            ALSO MINOR FLOODING REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 24 AT 2 MILES E
            OF STRATTON.

&&

MLAMMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
654 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     HAIL             5 S BURLINGTON          39.23N 102.27W
04/22/2010  E1.25 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   STORM CHASER

&&

HENDERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
659 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             5 S BURLINGTON          39.23N 102.27W
04/22/2010  E1.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MLAMMERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
724 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

COZ090-091-KSZ001-230200-
CHEYENNE-KIT CARSON COUNTY-YUMA COUNTY-
724 PM MDT THU APR 22 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS...

AT 722 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM IDALIA TO 6 MILES
SOUTH OF BONNY RESERVOIR TO BURLINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

FOLTZ