Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.DISCUSSION...
312 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME BY MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS TODAY FOLLOWED BY A TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING PERSISTENT AREA OF STORMS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THAT
AREA FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH THE FLOW
EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH TODAY SHOULD
FOCUS MORE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME THE BOUNDARY FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER WARM H7 TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION. PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND CHANCE
POPS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA.

DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ARE 3 DEGREES OR LESS AND WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INDICATES THAT VALUES COULD
REACH 85 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT SO WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

850MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY/MONDAY. TODAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA CURRENTLY WITH
STORMS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES THERE OTHERWISE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. MAX READINGS SUNDAY/MONDAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S.

FS
&&

.AVIATION...
1130 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. SCATTERED TSRA
CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO MAY COME CLOSE TO KGLD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE A
TEMPO IN THE TAF. WILL MONITOR 88D TRENDS AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES TO DETERMINE WHETHER TO AMEND FOR THE INCLUSION OF
STORMS.  DON/T THINK TSRA WILL BE A FACTOR AT KMCK.

05
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
130 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-011400-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
130 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010 /230 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. HAIL TO ONE
INCH AND GUSTY WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ADDITIONALLY THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT NEXT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1004 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       8 NNE BURLINGTON        39.42N 102.20W
07/31/2010  M2.98 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            COCORAHS REPORT AS OF 7 A.M.

&&

APIETRYC