Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
516 PM MDT FRI JUN 11 2010

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - MONDAY)
215 PM MDT FRI JUN 11 2010

THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS TO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE FIRST WILL BE THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
REGION OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE WITH
COPIOUS QPF SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE OTHER AREA WILL BE THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WAS NEAR A MCCOOK TO LEOTI LINE AT 19Z AND
IS DISCERNIBLE ON KGLD RADAR AS A FINE LINE RETREATING WESTWARD. OF
THE SHORT TERM MODELS...THE RUC HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE FRONT. IT
IS THE ONLY HI RES MODEL BREAKING OUT CONVECTION IN NW KANSAS AND TO
SHOW IT MOVING WESTWARD. IN BOTH AREAS...MEAN STORM MOTION WILL BE
190/10-20KTS WITH RIGHT MOVERS 250/10-15KTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 30-40KTS OF FLOW AT 500MB AND
EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE VEERING TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. EXTREME
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST EAST OF THE FRONT AND VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE...BUT SOME NEGATIVES
INCLUDE 700MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 15C ADVECTING INTO THE EASTERN CWA
AND LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. FURTHERMORE...THE
NAM...WHICH HAS A VERY GOOD TRACK RECORD AS OF LATE...IS CONFINING
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST AREAS AND IS
DIFFICULT TO IGNORE. SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLORADO CONVECTION WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER...WITH MID RANGE POPS ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT MCS SHOULD PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST. IT MAY TRY
TO RETURN WESTWARD AGAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND END UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT...WITH 50S AND 60S TO THE WEST
AND 70S AND 80S TO THE EAST. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL INCH CLOSER ON SATURDAY. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SAME SCENARIO AS
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BE EJECTING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
ON SUNDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS. THE AIR MASS WILL START OUT COOL AND STABLE...BUT ANY
DEGREE OF AFTERNOON HEATING UNDER THE UNUSUALLY COLD UPPER SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND LIKELY ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR WILL BE AMPLE AND WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY.

ON MONDAY NUMERICAL MODELS MERGE THE ROCKIES LOW WITH ONE DROPPING
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE
RESULTING CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HARD TO RULE OUT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND SOMEWHAT FROM THE WEEKEND BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM... (TUESDAY - FRIDAY)
215 PM MDT FRI JUN 11 2010

UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE
PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE PRESENCE OF A LEE
TROUGH...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...
515 PM MDT FRI JUN 11 2010

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
AT BOTH SITES THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL PRECIP IN ITS WAKE. IN
THE NEAR TERM...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AT
BOTH TERMINALS. EXACT TIMING DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND THUS WILL INDICATE
POTENTIAL WITH CB GROUPS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. STORMS WHICH DO DIRECTLY
IMPACT EITHER SITE MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTING WINDS GRADUALLY AROUND FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING.

50
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT FRI JUN 11 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1055 AM MDT FRI JUN 11 2010 /1155 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THIS FRONT WILL
ROUGHLY EXTEND FROM NEAR SHARON SPRINGS TO COLBY TO NORTON. SOME
OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT).

BULLER/JSL

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