Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
653 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 2010

.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. A TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH REGARD
TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POTENTIAL VSBY/CIG ISSUES LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STARTING OFF THE PERIOD...DESPITE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ONGOING 100 MILES WEST OF
KGRI...FEEL THAT ANY ACTIVITY AT/NEAR THE TERMINAL SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. EVEN THEN...CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
STILL QUITE LOW...AND THUS ONLY INTRODUCED A CB MENTION FOR NOW
AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY IF ANY TEMPO GROUPS BECOME NECESSARY.
THE OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER RISK FOR DIMINISHED
VSBY/LOW CIG AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES IN THE LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER...DO NOT ANTICIPATE CIG/VSBY TO TANK AS AGGRESSIVELY
AS LAST NIGHT. MAINTAINED THE TEMPO GROUP FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR
MVFR VSBY...BUT ALSO ADDED MENTION OF A LOWER MVFR CIG. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN MVFR CIG STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR.
REALLY DON/T EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE AN ISSUE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. ASSUMING THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT AFFECT THE TERMINAL
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE AT ALL DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS HOLDING BELOW 10KT FROM THE NORTH OR
NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 2010/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BIGGEST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HEAT FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS FOR HEAT...HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
MITCHELL COUNTY KS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL NOT HAVE HEAT ADVISORY
CONCERNS SINCE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE
MONITOR TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT LEANING TO NOT ISSUING FOR NOW.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OPPOSING PARAMETERS ARE AT PLAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SPECIFICALLY FOR
TONIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING IS LIMITING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE FORECAST AREA IS
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MENTIONED EARLIER...SO A FOCUSING
MECHANISM IS IN PLACE...THE QUESTION IS WILL THE MID LEVEL CAP
WEAKEN ENOUGH TO LET CONVECTION INITIATE. CURRENT THINKING IS
CONVECTION WOULD HAVE TO FIRE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE ATMOSPHERE
IS MORE CONDUCIVE TO INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD MOVE EAST ONTO THE PLAINS. AGAIN...IF CAP IS
STRONG ENOUGH...THESE STORMS WOULD WEAKEN AS THE PROGRESS EAST. ALL
THAT SAID...IF THE CAP WEAKENS A DEGREE OR TWO...ALL BETS ARE OFF
AND WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND LIKE THIS MORNING. IN TERMS OF
TIMING...THINKING BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS AROUND MIDNIGHT OR AFTER.
LOOKS LIKE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
SHOULD KEEP MOST THUNDERSTORMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...THOUGH IT IS HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RENEGADE SEVERE
STORM. SO...ALL THAT CONSIDERED...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IF...WHEN AND
WHERE ANY STORMS WILL BE TONIGHT SO LOWERED CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM
LIKELY VALUES TO CHANCE VALUES.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SAME PATTERN PERSISTS...SO
HARD TO TAKE THUNDERSTORMS OUT COMPLETELY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHEN
AND WHERE VERY LOW. THEREFORE...CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
OR LOW PROBABILITIES OF STORMS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

LIKED THE NAM SOLUTIONS OUT OF THE GATE BECAUSE IT HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON PRECIP AND THE MID LEVEL ENERGY. AS THE MODEL PROGRESSED
OUT 12 HOURS OR SO...LOST CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTIONS AND WENT A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS.

LONG TERM...SUNRISE THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONCERNS IN
THE EXTENDED INCLUDE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

STARTING AT 12Z THURSDAY...BIG PICTURE SHOWS UPPER PATTERN HAVING
OUR AREA IN NW FLOW EARLY ON WITH HUDSON BAY LOW TO OUR NE...LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...AND TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN
U.S. COAST. WEAK E/W FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL OK.

LONG RANGE MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT IN TRYING TO BUILD IN RIDGE
SOMEWHAT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...TAKES ITS TIME
AMPLIFYING AND TRYING TO PICK OUT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLIDING
THROUGH THE AREA PROBLEMATIC.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN AND SW PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AND THURS NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION THAT MIGHT RIDE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. PRUDENT THING FOR NOW IS TO LEAVE IT ALONE AND CONTINUE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS.  FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET BUT SOME
MODELS HINTING AT MID LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE FRIDAY
NIGHT SO WILL INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NIGHT TIME STORMS.  NO
GUARANTEE THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY RIDGE
RUNNING SYSTEMS NORTH OF OUR CWA SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

IN REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE HAS UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S IN
THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. PROBABLY OK
EARLY ON BUT IF RIDGE AMPLIFIES AS ADVERTISED SHOULD SEE HOT
CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM THE WEEKEND ON. THUS WILL GO ABOVE
GUIDANCE WITH MID 90S NORTH AND NEAR 100 SOUTH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...EDDY
LONG TERM...EWALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
906 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 2010

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
041200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
906 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING
ALMOST ANYWHERE WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO OVER GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING
WINDS TO AROUND 70 MPH...BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION. MOST
STORMS WITHIN THE AREA TONIGHT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA...BUT COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PFANNKUCH

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